Opening Day for MLB has arrived, and the Atlanta Braves begin their 2026 season against the Kansas City Royals at home inside Truist Park.
At this point, the Braves are just happy to see the season begin after the way Spring Training took a turn for the worse. Despite winning the Grapefruit League this year, Atlanta hardly went unscathed. Injuries to some of their top players piled up quickly.
Most of the Braves’ issues come from their starting pitching staff, with losses like Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep sidelined until midseason due to arm injuries. Relief pitcher Joey Wentz also went down with an ACL injury.
Then, just days before Opening Day, Spencer Strider was placed on the IL with a strained oblique and will miss a few weeks.
But that’s not all. Infielder Ha-Seong Kim and catcher Sean Murphy are both out until May. And then there’s the Jurickson Profar situation — a second failed PED test that cost him the entire season and likely his future with the organization.
So, it’s fair to say the outlook for 2026 isn’t exactly encouraging.
Braves Projected to Finish Third in NL East
According to The Athletic’s Keith Law, Atlanta isn’t expected to contend at the level it once did.
Law projects the Braves to finish 83-79, placing third in the NL East behind the New York Mets, who he has winning the division at 94-68 — a notable prediction considering the Mets haven’t won the division since 2015.
If that projection holds, it would mark a slight improvement over last year’s 76-86 record, but it would also extend Atlanta’s division drought to three consecutive seasons after winning six straight.
“Atlanta’s fortunes seem to keep sliding, as they’ve now lost four definite or potential starting pitchers to injuries, with three of them undergoing surgery,” Law wrote.
“I’m less concerned about the injuries to Sean Murphy and Ha-Seong Kim, as they have Rookie of the Year Drake Baldwin behind the plate, and Kim wasn’t very good in his return from shoulder surgery last year.”
Law also pointed to the Braves’ lack of reliable depth on the mound.
“They almost had to push Didier Fuentes back into their rotation, even though he didn’t look ready at all last year and finished 2025 on the IL with shoulder inflammation.”
Despite that, Law still believes Atlanta has taken a step forward — just not enough to truly contend.
“I think they’re better than they were last year, when they went 76-86 despite being about as league-average a team as you can get, but their odds of contending have gone down quite a bit in the last six weeks.”
Braves Facing Uphill Battle to Stay Competitive in 2026
Even with the injuries, the Braves still have enough talent offensively to remain competitive on a nightly basis.
The core remains intact with players like Ronald Acuña Jr., Austin Riley and Matt Olson expected to carry the lineup. That group alone gives Atlanta the ability to stay in games — even if the pitching staff takes time to stabilize.
But the reality is, pitching depth is going to determine how far this team goes.
With multiple starters sidelined and uncertainty surrounding how quickly they can return — and at what level — Atlanta may be forced to rely on younger, unproven arms early in the season.
That’s a risky formula in a division that features a strong Mets team and a competitive Phillies squad.
The Braves don’t necessarily need to dominate early, but they can’t afford to fall too far behind either.
Because if Law’s projection proves accurate, Atlanta could once again find itself stuck in the middle — not bad enough to fully reset, but not good enough to seriously contend.
And that’s a place this franchise hasn’t been used to for quite some time.
Braves Get Final Grim Season Prediction Before Opening Day