It’s been a long season for the Boston Red Sox, and it’s only the middle of May. At 19-27, they’re in fifth place in the AL East, 11.5 games out, and the offense has become a major issue for them.
Recently, Pat Brown of Play Tessie, a Red Sox podcast, did the math on what the team’s record would be if Boston had a league-average offense — 32-14 on the season. That would be by averaging 4.5 runs per game.
That record wouldn’t just have the Red Sox first in the AL East, it would be the best record in all of MLB.
In a way, it’s a testament to how good Boston’s pitching and defense have been this season. The Red Sox are ninth in team ERA, at 3.81 for the season. They’re also 11th in WHIP, 12th in opponents’ batting average, and 7th in earned runs allowed. They’re even better as a staff in May, improving after a slow start.
Meanwhile, Boston’s defense has been phenomenal. Fangraphs has the Red Sox first in all of MLB in Defensive Runs Above Average and first in Defensive Runs Saved.
The problem remains the offense. Boston’s 167 runs scored are 29th in MLB. Their .235 batting average is 22nd, .310 OBP is 24th, .356 slugging percentage is 29th, and .666 OPS is 29th. That’s with just 33 home runs and 79 doubles on the season while playing half their games in Fenway Park.
Boston Red Sox CBO Craig Breslow Pivoted from Adding on Offense in the Offseason
GettyBoston Red Sox CBO Craig Breslow
Going into the offseason, the Boston Red Sox front office, led by CBO Craig Breslow, emphasized the need to add power bats. Most people expected that meant the return of Alex Bregman and the addition of another bat.
“In a perfect world, I would suppose we would want to balance out the lineup a bit [with a righty]. That said, I think when you can hit the ball out of the park, it doesn’t really matter,” Breslow said last November. “I think we have found that lefties can use the wall and create a good offensive environment, righties who can pull the ball in the air can do the same thing. There are a number of different ways for us to improve our slug, but I think this idea that we can do more damage on balls on play is certainly a correct one.”
The Red Sox tried to retain Bregman, but didn’t try hard enough. After that, it was clear that free agent signings were coming for the lineup. Later, they added Willson Contreras and Caleb Durbin through trades. So far, Contreras has worked out and Durbin has been amongst the worst hitters in baseball on the back of what now looks like a disaster of a trade.
Once Bregman signed with the Chicago Cubs, the Red Sox publicly pivoted to pitching and defense. That included the money seemingly earmarked for Bregman on Ranger Suarez.
Purely based on the stats, Breslow succeeded in building the pitching and defense up. At the cost of the offense, it may not matter, though.
Injuries are Adding Up for the Red Sox
GettyBoston Red Sox OF Roman Anthony speaks to a trainer
The Boston Red Sox were already struggling as a team. Then, the injuries started adding up.
In the lineup, the most notable of those injuries was to projected superstar Roman Anthony. Boston’s left fielder is a phenom as a prospect, and now he wants to take off in the majors. However, he injured his wrist on a swing and, for the second season in a row, ended up on the IL after hurting himself while swinging a bat.
Veteran shortstop Trevor Story also recently went down. He was struggling at the dish as well, and now he’s considering surgery for a sports hernia. Even Boston’s top two catchers are banged up, as both Carlos Narvaez and Connor Wong left games in the last week with minor injuries.
The pitching staff hasn’t been free of injuries. Ranger Suarez, Sonny Gray, and Garrett Crochet have all missed time. However, the depth there has overcome some of those issues in a way the Red Sox offense isn’t capable of overcoming.
Red Sox Record with a League Average Offense Revealed After Latest Loss