The Boston Red Sox, despite a walk-off 2-1 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays on Saturday, can still clinch a postseason spot with a win in Tampa Bay Sunday.
A loss by the Houston Astros would also do the trick. But Boston may already be looking ahead to an American League Wild Card Series in New York against the Yankees.
On Sunday, Red Sox interim manager Chad Tracy announced the three starting pitchers who will face the Cleveland Guardians in a three-game series at Fenway Park starting Tuesday — setting off speculation that the same pitching order would be used in a Wild Card Series.
Boston has set Payton Tolle, Sonny Gray and Ranger Suárez to start its three games against Cleveland this week.
Tracy confirmed Tolle goes Tuesday, Gray Wednesday and Suárez Thursday for the three games at Fenway Park, setting the rotation order Sunday according to MLB.com‘s Ian Browne.
But Tracy was careful to tell reporters, “Don’t read into that, yet,” as quoted by Rob Bradford of WEEI in Boston.
The order marks a shift from at least one outside projection. CBS Sports had penciled in Jake Bennett for Thursday’s start instead of Suárez, a reminder of how unsettled Boston’s staff remains with the wild-card race still playing out.
Red Sox Rotation and a Yankees Wild Card Series
If the season ended today, Boston would travel to New York as the No. 5 seed to face the No. 4 Yankees in a best-of-three Wild Card Series, as they now sit six games back in that race. New York’s higher seed means that all three games would be played at Yankee Stadium with none of the series returning to Fenway.
That series is scheduled to open Tuesday, Sept. 29, with Game 2 the next night and a decisive Game 3, if necessary, on Oct. 1, two days after the regular season wraps up Sunday. Tolle’s turn against Cleveland would land Sept. 22, seven days ahead of a possible Game 1 start.
Gray’s Wednesday outing sets up the same seven-day cushion before Game 2, and Suárez’s Thursday turn lines up identically before Game 3. Every arm in the trio would arrive fully rested, and Boston still has three games against the Cubs sandwiched in between, leaving Tracy room to shuffle the order, rest an arm or lean on Jake Bennett, Brayan Bello or Patrick Sandoval instead.
Payton Tolle, Sonny Gray and Ranger Suárez by the Numbers
Tolle, 23, carries a 9-6 record with a 3.02 ERA over 25 starts, with 166 strikeouts in 143 innings. He has sharpened down the stretch, posting a 0.75 ERA over his last two turns, including seven strikeouts and no runs allowed in his most recent outing against Kansas City.
Gray, 36, has been Boston’s workhorse. 17-5 with a 2.82 ERA, and a 2.59 ERA over his last 15 starts after a slow April. His career line runs 142-107 with a 3.52 ERA across 13 major league seasons.
Suárez, who spent his first several big league seasons in Philadelphia, has lagged somewhat behind those two, going 8-4 with a 3.27 ERA across 27 starts, and an ERA south of 1.00 in September.
History favors Suárez by the widest margin. His four Phillies postseasons produced a 1.48 ERA across 42 2/3 innings, with a save thrown in for good measure. Gray’s postseason résumé is longer but not quite as impressive, with 1-3 with a 3.26 ERA over stints with Oakland, the Yankees and Minnesota.
Tolle’s entire October history is one-third of an inning of scoreless relief, logged in last year’s Wild Card Series against the Yankees.
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