Few teams have been as aggressive in locking up young players to lengthy extensions as the Red Sox, and there is no doubt that on both sides, agreeing to those extensions requires the willingness to accept risk. The latest example was Roman Anthony on Wednesday, when it was announced that Boston had locked him up on an eight-year extension worth $130 million.
He joins Kristian Campbell (eight years, $60 million, plus club options), Brayan Bello (six years, $55 million) and Ceddanne Rafaela (eight years, $50 million) on the list of homegrown talent given what are, essentially, arbitration buyout contracts with team savings on the back end.
But the savings could be enormous. That was true on players such as Campbell, Bello and Rafaela, who have high ceilings, but won’t be elite players going forward. On Anthony, who was the top prospect in the game for more than a year, the savings could be massive.
Red Sox Roman Anthony Contract a ‘Shock’
In fact, former GM Jim Bowden, speaking on the “Foul Territory” podcast, said he was “shocked” that Anthony agreed to the deal with the Red Sox.
“I cannot believe Roman Anthony left that much money on the table,” said Bowden.
Bowden likened the situations to Ron Acuna Jr with the Braves and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. with the Blue Jays. Acuna took the early extension from Atlanta, with two years of club options, meaning he could be a free agent at age 30 in 2028. Guerrero did not sign an extension and got a 14-year, $500 million deal (per Spotrac) that starts in 2026.
“I’m actually in a state of shock. I don’t understand how you can sit there and watch Ronald Acuña Jr. and watch Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and see the difference between the two, right? I mean, right now in the bank, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is guaranteed $570.8 million in earnings. Ronald Acuña Jr., a similar talent, should be paid similarly. Has $100 million, so there’s a difference of $470 million between the two, and Roman Anthony just signed an Acuña Jr. deal.”
Red Sox Assuming Risk on Long-Term Commitment
Bowden is overstating things, of course. Guerrero is signed through his 40th birthday, and if Acuna signs a 10-year, $400 million at age 30, he’d make up the difference. Acuna is also a bad example for Bowden to use–he has had trouble staying healthy, and if that continues to be the case, he will be glad he has $100 million guaranteed.
The Red Sox have risk here, too.
Anthony has played just 47 games, and while he has been outstanding (.276 average, .392 OBP, .417 slugging) the Red Sox run the risk of him either struggling with injuries or failing to develop further as a player. There are also significant incentives that have been reported to bring the contract over $200 million.
Roman Anthony ‘Left $100 Million on the Table’
Still Bowden is saying that Anthony left money on the table.
Said Bowden: “I understand, if you’re 21 years old it’s really hard to turn down $130 million, I also understand he will be a free agent again at age 29 and he’ll have a chance to get that $700, $800 million deal by then. I get that. I get the thinking behind it. But not when there’s that much money on the table. The last two years of his deal along, he left $100 million on the table. $100 million! Which is almost exactly what he is signing for here.”
There’s no doubt that, if he continues to blossom into a star, he will have left money on the table. But that’s the tradeoff for the Red Sox taking the injury/bust risk on Anthony.
Why Roman Anthony Red Sox Move Has Ex-MLB GM ‘Shocked’