Update: A new trade framework floated Thursday would require the Red Sox to part with Jarren Duran and two pitchers to land Tarik Skubal, per Bleacher Report.
The Boston Red Sox have been on the receiving end of fan dissatisfaction this offseason for their perceived lack of a top-tier free agent signing, but one area where chief of baseball operations Craig Breslow has clearly made major upgrades is the starting rotation. The signing of former Philadelphia Phillies left-hander Ranger Suárez, along with trades for veteran Sonny Gray and Pittsburgh Pirates power right-hander Johan Oviedo, has remade the rotation top to bottom.
Left-hander 2025 strikeouts leader (255) and Cy Young Award runner-up Garrett Crochet remains in the No. 1 spot, with homegrown fifth-year right-hander Brayan Bello, coming off his best season with a 3.35 ERA, helping to finish off the starting five and form what at least some experts see as the best rotation in baseball heading into 2026.
But even at this point, is there room for improvement?
According to leading MLB trade analyst Zachary D. Rymer of Bleacher Report, the answer is yes — and the pitcher he believes the Red Sox could acquire in a “last ditch” deal before spring training is none other than the consensus best mound ace in the American League, or even all of MLB, 29-year-old Detroit Tigers back-to-back Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal.
Duran Tops 3-Player Package For Skubal
In his Thursday Bleacher Report analytical overview, Rymer lists eight possible trade destinations for the Tigers’ ace. The Red Sox rank at No. 3. The Bleacher Report writer believes that the Red Sox could land Skubal with a three-player package that would be headed by the outfielder whose name has already been invoked in seemingly countless trade proposals this offseason — 29-year-old Jarren Duran.
A trade of Skubal for Duran may not be quite as lopsided as a casual observer might think. Judging player value by bWAR (wins above replacement as calculated by Baseball Reference), the two appear almost equal. In fact, over the last two seasons, Duran has a slight edge.
Skubal has accumulated 12.9 bWAR over 2024 and 2025. Duran’s two-year bWAR total is actually slightly better at 13.4.
The picture looks somewhat different in fWAR (the FanGraphs version of WAR), but not extremely so. Skubal’s two-year fWAR total stands at 12.6, compared with Duran’s 10.7.
Bello Plus No. 10 Prospect Complete Trade Package
But the Tigers would also receive two more players, both pitchers, in exchange for giving up their ace, who has compiled a 31-10 won-lost record with a 2.30 ERA over the last two seasons combined.
According to Rymer, the Red Sox would send Bello to the Tigers. While far from Skubal’s equal, the 26-year-old right-hander still has time for significant development and would slot nicely into a rotation which, in Skubal’s absence, would be headed by 2018 No. 1 overall draft pick Casey Mize, followed by nine-year veteran Jack Flaherty.
Finally, in the Bleacher Report proposal, the Red Sox would part with 6-foot-4, 250-pound right-hander Marcus Phillips, a Red Sox first-round draft pick in 2025 who, despite having yet to throw a competitive professional pitch, is ranked as the No. 10 overall prospect in the Boston system by both MLB Pipeline and SoxProspects.com.
But why would the Tigers want to trade Skubal in the first place? The answer can be summed up in one word: money.
The left-handed ace is bound to the Tigers for just one more year before hitting what will likely be a record-setting free agency. Skubal and the Tigers are set for an arbitration hearing in February, and the pitcher has set his price at an arbitration-request record $32 million.
‘Last Ditch’ MLB Trade Idea Lands Red Sox $32 Million Ace For Jarren Duran