The New York Yankees already proved this season that they have a deep rotation of starting pitchers.
What if they want to make it the best in the sport? Tarik Skubal will be a free agent this winter.
First, of course, the Tiger-turned-Dodger will try to help the Los Angeles Dodgers three-peat as World Series champion.
But then he will hit the open market, and a potential bidding war will ensue.
Skubal is going to command, most likely, the biggest contract a starting pitcher has ever gotten.
The Yankees, maybe not quite in the mix as they once were in free agency, are still expected to be players for Skubal.
Tarik Skubal Contract Projection
The first piece of Skubal math is considering what it might really cost.
A new ESPN article on Friday surveyed industry insiders, and the most commonly voted salary range for Skubal was between $351 and $400 million.
Of those votes, there were six specific projections for $400 million exactly in total salary — four of those on an eight-year deal, which would be $50 million per year, and two of those on a 10-year deal, which would be $40 million per year.
So that’s certainly a reasonable place to start.
“The average projected contract was eight years and $355 million, which is a $44.6 million average annual value (AAV),” ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel wrote as part of the article. “Sixteen of 27 projections (59%) were for $325 to 400 million guaranteed over seven to 10 years — a clear sweet spot, and you’ll see below why that is.”
When Will Tarik Skubal Sign?
Skubal signing this offseason will be complicated by the Dec. 1 expiration of the collective bargaining agreement, which is going to send MLB into a lockout.
Players won’t be able to sign while the game is locked out, and so they can either try to get a deal done quickly or wait it out.
In this case, Skubal may lean toward signing early.
“I also asked panelists whether the deal would be done before the Dec. 1 expiration of the CBA, when the expected lockout would start: 21 of 27 (78%) predicted the deal will be done before Dec. 1, similar timing to the nine-figure deals of Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Max Scherzer, Robbie Ray, Kevin Gausman and Javier Baez that came before the 2021-2022 lockout began. Boras negotiated the first three of those contracts,” McDaniel wrote.
Tarik Skubal to Yankees?
So why the Yankees? Because not every big-name player can land with the Dodgers or the Mets.
In all seriousness, it would feel a lot like the Yankees of old to go and get Skubal.
“For those who thought the Dodgers wouldn’t break the bank, and the Mets would only offer AAV-record deals, the Yankees were a common fallback,” McDaniel writes. “Brian Cashman has landed Cole, Max Fried and Carlos Rodon in free agency in the last half dozen years and adding Skubal to a group that also includes Cam Schlittler, Ryan Weathers, Will Warren and Clarke Schmidt would give the Yankees the best starting pitching in the sport. That much depth likely would necessitate a trade.”
That is a fascinating subplot if this happens. If Skubal signs in late November, the Yankees’ fanbase may spend the entire lockout wondering if when baseball returns, one of their starting pitchers will be traded elsewhere to make room for the lefty superstar.
Yankees, Tarik Skubal Can Join For $400 Million With Trade