The Philadelphia Phillies could have clinched a playoff spot Saturday. With the Arizona Diamondbacks losing to the Padres in San Diego, all the Phillies needed to do was win. Instead, they took a 12-1 drubbing from the Tampa Bay Rays, a team that wrapped up its own postseason berth more than two weeks ago.
The Phillies now get a fifth shot at clinching a playoff berth Sunday, needing only a win over Tampa Bay or another Arizona loss to the Padres to end the drama. The game that will decide the Phillies’ fate is scheduled to start at 3:05 p.m. ET and will be broadcast only by the local outlets of both teams, and streamed by MLB.tv.
Four straight losses have shrunk what was once a healthy 6 1/2-game lead in the National League wild-card race to a single game. So what do they need to do now to finally clinch a postseason slot for the fifth consecutive year?
Sunday’s Clinch Scenarios and a Wet Citizens Bank Park
Zack Wheeler takes the mound Sunday for the Phillies against Nick Martinez, and the scenarios are straightforward. If the Phillies win, they’re in — clinching that fifth straight postseason trip regardless of whether Arizona wins or loses. A Phillies loss paired with an Arizona win at San Diego sends the Phillies home until next spring, because the two teams will finish with identical won-lost records and Arizona owns the tiebreaker.
Anything else, including a Phillies loss and an Arizona loss, sends Philadelphia through anyway.
The Diamondbacks and Phillies split their season series 3-3. But the Diamondbacks recorded a better record within their own division than the Phillies did in theirs, meaning Arizona holds the tiebreaker and would advance. San Diego and Chicago have already clinched the other two wild-card berths, meaning a Phillies clinch on Sunday sends them to Atlanta for a best-of-three Wild Card Series opening Tuesday.
Rain already delayed Saturday’s first pitch by more than half an hour before Philadelphia played through it. Sunday looks wetter still. The National Weather Service put Sunday’s rain chance at 100%, with a high near 65, northwest wind gusting to 40 mph and up to an inch of additional rainfall, with a wind advisory running into midday.
Game-time conditions are expected to hover around 62 degrees, with precipitation chances still elevated and wind blowing in from the outfield, a combination that saps fly balls and favors pitchers, according to WeatherMLB‘s stadium forecast. Nothing in the outlook points to a full postponement, only delays.
Zack Wheeler’s Finale and Four Blown Clinch Chances
Nobody in Philadelphia saw this coming three weeks ago. The Phillies sat at 79-60 on Sept. 1, holding a 6 1/2-game lead over Arizona for the National League’s last wild-card spot and a 99.7 percent chance to reach October, according to FanGraphs.
The Phillies have scored just three total runs during their current four-game skid, once going 21 innings without crossing the plate, their longest scoreless stretch since a 26-inning drought in June 2025. Saturday’s 12-1 loss to the Rays marked the fourth separate night Philadelphia had a chance to clinch and let it slip away.
Interim manager Don Mattingly started Aaron Nola on two days’ rest Saturday, an emergency bullpen game born of Jesús Luzardo landing on the 15-day injured list with a shoulder injury. Nola lasted one inning before a Junior Caminero homer and back-to-back doubles dug the Phillies an early hole.
“Two weeks ago, I wouldn’t guess that we’d be in this situation,” J.T. Realmuto said, as quoted by MLB.com. “But that’s this game. It knows how to humble you. So hopefully, we can come out of this better tomorrow, get in the postseason and get hot then.”
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