The Philadelphia Phillies’ playoff fate remains unsettled, with multiple scenarios — and even the weather — potentially factoring into the outcome.
Here’s every scenario that could determine whether the Phillies reach the postseason and how weather could play a role.
The Phillies enter Friday with a magic number of two. A victory paired with one Arizona Diamondbacks loss would clinch the final National League wild-card spot.
A Phillies victory paired with an Arizona loss locks the berth up tonight, while a Diamondbacks win or a Philadelphia defeat to the Tampa Bay Rays drags the race into a nor’easter-threatened weekend at Citizens Bank Park. If the Phillies lose tonight and the Diamondbacks beat the San Diego Padres, the make-or-miss scenario could go to Sunday, the final day of the regular season.
Philadelphia sits at 87-72, and Arizona is the only team left that can catch them, with the magic number down to two. San Diego and the Chicago Cubs have already locked down the National League’s other two wild-card spots and the Atlanta Braves clinched the NL East pennant and the No. 3 seed on Sunday, Sept. 20.
As of Friday morning, the wild-card round bracket has the Phillies at Atlanta, and Chicago traveling to face the Padres.
Friday holds exactly one outright clinching combination: Philadelphia beats Tampa Bay, and Arizona loses at San Diego. That pushes the Phillies to 88 wins and caps the Diamondbacks at 87, eliminating Arizona from postseason contention.
Anything short of that and Philadelphia carries the race into a Tampa Bay series Saturday and Sunday, still uncertain of their playoff plans, or if they even have any.
A win in any two of the final three games against Tampa Bay clinches it regardless of what Arizona does, and a Diamondbacks collapse against San Diego, losing at least two of the three games there, gets Philadelphia in even if they get swept by the Rays.
Elimination requires going 1-2 while Arizona sweeps or going 0-3 while Arizona wins at least two, with Arizona holding the head-to-head tiebreaker in a tie.
Philadelphia Phillies’ Seeding Scenarios
Wild-card seeding runs strictly by record among the three non-division winners, and the higher seed hosts every game of the best-of-three Wild Card Series opening Tuesday, Sept. 29. Philadelphia’s current default is the No. 6 seed, a trip to Atlanta with the winner advancing to face the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Climbing to No. 5 means passing the Cubs, who hold the season-series tiebreaker, so Philadelphia must finish with a better record, not a tie. Chicago has three games left against Boston, and two Cubs losses combined with a Phillies win would flip that seed for now.
The No. 4 seed, hosting the entire series at Citizens Bank Park, requires the best wild-card record of the three. A sweep of the Rays gets Philadelphia to 90-72, enough for No. 4 if San Diego finishes no better than a tied 90-72 and Chicago finishes worse. If all three land at 90-72, the tiebreakers set the order as Cubs, Phillies, Padres.
Weather Threatens Philadelphia’s Final Weekend
Friday’s forecast is the safest of the three. Highs are expected near 70 degrees, according to the National Weather Service, with breezy northeast wind and only a modest rain chance before midnight.
Saturday is the problem. Rain probability climbs to roughly 90 percent, according to WeatherBug, with gusts near 40 mph. Sunday stays wet too, with an 80 percent chance ahead of the 3:05 p.m. first pitch.
The same system is already rewriting schedules in Boston, where MLB moved the Cubs-Red Sox finale into Friday’s doubleheader to get ahead of the nor’easter.
If Philadelphia gets rained out, a Friday postponement defaults to a Saturday doubleheader, a Saturday washout pushes to Sunday, and Monday, Sept. 28, is the only open date before Tuesday’s Wild Card Series opener.
None of that hands Arizona anything automatically. Unplayed games that could change who makes the field, or who hosts, will be played. Philadelphia controls its own outcome, weather notwithstanding.
Will the Phillies Make the Playoffs? Every Scenario, Including Weather