Baseball’s unwritten rules don’t have the power they once did. And if there’s a franchise with nothing left to protect but its future, it might be willing to break one of the oldest: You don’t trade your franchise cornerstone — in this case, the St. Louis Cardinals‘ Nolan Arenado — to your biggest rival.
The Chicago Cubs, of all teams, might be best positioned to take advantage of the Cardinals potential need to deal away the once-touchable Arenado, who has a no-trade clause, an aging bat and a massive contract.
ESPN’s Buster Olney wrote in a May 12 story on trade deadline “X factors” that the Cubs “haven’t found a solution at third base.” It was a small line buried in a longer blurb about Arenado’s availability, but it was telling.
Because it was in the same paragraph as this: “Conditions are emerging to foster this possibility, if Arenado waives his no-trade clause and the Cardinals are willing to deal him.”
There it is: The Cubs need a third baseman. The Cardinals might trade one. And for once, a transaction that would’ve been dismissed as fan fiction now has a foot in reality.
Would the Cardinals Actually Do It?
That’s the question. Because no matter how logical it might be from a baseball operations standpoint, trading Nolan Arenado to the Cubs will cause a five-alarm fire in St. Louis.
But maybe that’s the point.
This isn’t the old Cardinals team. They’ve missed the postseason. They’re trending toward another. Their farm system needs replenishing. Mozeliak’s legacy is already written. What’s left is positioning the next front office to win.
If the Cubs offer the best package — and if Arenado is willing to waive his no-trade clause for a playoff team in a big market — how can the Cardinals justify saying no?
The Cubs Make Sense on Paper
Chicago has tried patching third base with Nicky Lopez, Jon Berti, Matt Shaw, and Vidal Brujan. It hasn’t worked. They need a defensive anchor and a veteran presence for their playoff push.
They also have something the Yankees and Dodgers don’t: pitching depth and a young core that the Cardinals could build around in return.
Even if the money’s tricky — Arenado is owed $24 million the rest of this season, $27 million in 2026, and $15 million in 2027 — the Cubs could offset it with mid-level talent or take on an additional piece, like Erick Fedde or even Sonny Gray, in a blockbuster.
And let’s be honest: stealing a franchise legend from your bitter rival is the kind of move that energizes a fanbase — and wrecks your opponent’s clubhouse.
The Hurdles Are Real — But So Is the Opportunity
Arenado’s no-trade clause remains a significant obstacle. So does the public perception in St. Louis. But remember: he already blocked a trade to Houston this past offseason. That was about the situation, not the legacy. If he views the Cubs as a chance to compete — and stick it to his old team along the way — he might say yes.
For the Cardinals, this wouldn’t just be about asset management. It’d be about moving on. If they’re serious about resetting for the next three years, there’s no room for sentimentality. You get the best deal possible, even trading across enemy lines.
A Blockbuster That Would Break the Rivalry Wide Open
It’s still unlikely. But it’s not impossible. And in a deadline cycle filled with cautious buyers and thin talent, sometimes the best move is the most shocking.
Don’t dismiss Arenado to the Cubs as an impossibility. If the Cardinals want to maximize his value, they may have to take the most uncomfortable call on the board.
Even if it’s coming from Chicago.
Hated Rival Could Be Fit for St. Louis Cardinals 8-Time All-Star: Insider