Failing to make it through September has become something of a rite of passage for MLB managers on the hot seat. And the MLB manager fired odds have begun to show who’s on the hot seat.
Front offices don’t always wait for the offseason to make a change. Sometimes, the writing is already on the wall, and there’s little reason to drag out the inevitable.
Just look at the recent history.
Bob Melvin and Rocco Baldelli were both fired in 2025. David Bell was let go in 2024. Gabe Kapler suffered the same fate in 2023.
September has become a time when organizations start looking beyond the current season and toward what needs to change for the next one.
Now, the MLB manager fired odds are giving off an idea of who could be next.
BetOnline Sports & Casino has opened its market, and one first-time manager is a massive favorite to be the next skipper shown the door.
Kurt Suzuki of the Los Angeles Angels is sitting at 2/3 (-150), putting him well ahead of the rest of the field. Kansas City Royals manager Matt Quatraro is next at 3/1, followed by Houston Astros manager Joe Espada at 11/2 (+550).
Detroit’s A.J. Hinch comes in at 8/1, while Arizona’s Terry Lovullo is at 14/1.
Then things get particularly interesting.
Toronto Blue Jays manager John Schneider and Seattle Mariners manager Dan Wilson are both sitting at 16/1.
That might seem surprising considering what those two managers accomplished last season. But that’s exactly what makes the current market worth watching.
Surprising Names Make MLB Manager Fired Odds
It wasn’t long ago that John Schneider and Dan Wilson were being celebrated for leading their clubs deep into October.
Schneider guided the Blue Jays to the 2025 AL pennant and World Series, while Wilson helped Seattle win the AL West and reach the ALCS.
That’s why seeing either name connected to MLB manager fired odds feels strange.
Managers aren’t necessarily judged solely on what they accomplished the previous season, though. Baseball is an unforgiving business, and expectations can change remarkably quickly.
A team can go from October darling to disappointment in a matter of months.
That’s particularly true when an organization believes its roster is good enough to contend. If the Blue Jays or Mariners believe they’re underperforming relative to their expectations, the manager can eventually become the easiest variable to change.
That doesn’t mean Schneider or Wilson should necessarily be fired.
Far from it.
But their inclusion on a hot-seat board illustrates how quickly the conversation can change in Major League Baseball. Even managers who have recently enjoyed tremendous success aren’t completely immune when expectations shift.
And September is when those decisions start becoming much more consequential.
Getting a Head Start Could Be the Smart Move
There is another reason September can make sense for a managerial change: time.
If a front office already knows it wants a different manager in 2027, why wait until the season is over?
Making the change in September gives an organization several additional weeks to figure out what it actually wants. Executives can start identifying candidates, studying coaching staffs and determining which managerial philosophy best fits the roster.
That could be especially valuable for teams that aren’t simply looking for a replacement but are trying to change the direction of the franchise.
The manager search can become a much more deliberate process.
Instead of scrambling after Game 162, a front office can already have a short list prepared. It can conduct interviews, evaluate internal candidates and potentially have a new manager in place relatively quickly once the offseason officially begins.
There is also the opportunity to give the incoming manager a better understanding of the organization before spring training.
That’s ultimately why the MLB manager fired odds are worth watching as September arrives.
A firing isn’t necessarily an admission that an organization has failed.
Sometimes it’s the first step toward fixing the problem.
And if a team already knows it needs a different voice, there may be very little reason to wait.
MLB Manager Fired Odds Reveal Who’s on the Hot Seat