Kyle Larson dominated Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series AdventHealth 400 at Kansas Speedway, but in the background, the playoff bubble is beginning to take shape. Here’s where the playoff picture sits with 12 of 26 regular-season races completed.
8. Chase Elliott (+127)
9. Ryan Blaney (+111)
10. Tyler Reddick (+106)
11. Alex Bowman (+74)
12. Bubba Wallace (+59)
13. Ross Chastain (+49)
Chastain finished 18th on what was a frustrating day for the No. 1 team. A runner-up finish at Texas seems to have just been a flash in the pan for a No. 1 team that is yet to show consistent speed or either Saturday or Sunday.
14. Chris Buescher (+33)
Sunday’s race was a classic, quiet showing from Buescher, who earned zero stage points but still finished eighth. While it wouldn’t be surprising to see Buescher snag a win and lock himself in, he’s in a solid position on points.
15. Chase Briscoe (+27)
Briscoe tied a season-best finish with a fourth-place effort at Kansas on Sunday. The No. 19 team is beginning to come into their own as the summer stretch approaches. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Briscoe pull away from his fellow bubble drivers over the next month or so.
16. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+7)
A 19th-place finish kept Stenhouse Jr. on the right side of the cut line this week. Stenhouse has eight top-20 finishes this season, and if he can keep up a similar pace over the next 14 races, he should have a fighting chance to earn a playoff bid.
17. Ryan Preece (-7)
If not for the disqualification following the April 27 race at Talladega, Preece would be well inside the playoff picture. However, a seventh-place run at Kansas on Sunday has him well within striking distance, and the No. 60 team has had plenty of speed throughout the season. Preece will undoubtedly be in the mix – if not locked in with a win – for the rest of the regular season.
18. Kyle Busch (-14)
Busch ran inside the top-15 for much of the day at Kansas, but a late spin put him back in traffic and eventually resulted in a 21st-place finish. There’s been an uptick in speed this season compared to the No. 8 team’s 2024 campaign, but the finishes just aren’t there right now for Busch. He’s in a better position to make the postseason than he was a year ago, but there’s still plenty of work to be done if the two-time champion wants to be fighting for his third title.
19. John Hunter Nemechek (-24)
Nemechek has been a pleasant surprise so far this season. Consecutive top-10 efforts from the No. 42 team have Nemechek well within striking distance of a playoff berth. After finishing 2024 as the worst driver in the standings to compete in all 36 races, 2025 has been a breath of fresh air.
20. Carson Hocevar (-28)
Hocevar went from running inside the top-10 to a 26th-place finish at Kansas. The raw speed has been there most weeks for the No. 77 team, but Hocevar must learn how to close out races with better finishes, or he won’t be in the playoff picture for very long. The second-year driver still has a ways to go as he continues to learn.
Likely Must-Win Scenarios
32. Riley Herbst (-107)
33. Brad Keselowski (-110)
34. Cole Custer (-119)
35. Shane van Gisbergen (-120)
36. Cody Ware (-190)
NASCAR Cup Series Playoff Picture Outlook After Kansas