If LeBron James ultimately decides to leave the Los Angeles Lakers for the Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles may not have to watch the NBA’s all-time leading scorer walk away empty-handed.
A new salary-cap analysis from The Athletic’s John Hollinger outlines a potential sign-and-trade structure that would allow the Warriors to pay James substantially more than the non-taxpayer midlevel exception while giving the Lakers assets in return instead of losing their franchise icon outright.
The scenario remains highly conditional.
It depends first on Golden State completing a blockbuster trade for Anthony Davis from the Washington Wizards before turning its attention to James.
Still, Hollinger’s breakdown introduces an alternative that could benefit both Pacific Division rivals if James ultimately decides his eight-year run in Los Angeles has come to an end.
Sign-and-Trade Could Benefit Both Lakers and LeBron James
The most widely discussed pathway has involved James signing with Golden State using the Warriors’ full non-taxpayer midlevel exception worth approximately $15.1 million.
That move would send James to the Bay Area but leave the Lakers without compensation.
Hollinger believes there may be a better solution.
Rather than signing outright, James could arrive through a sign-and-trade.
“LeBron James’ salary — IF he goes to the Warriors — would take up $15 million if he takes the nontaxpayer midlevel exception, or up to $23 million if the Warriors can work his acquisition as a sign-and-trade for Will Richard and the injured Moses Moody. (Moody would probably need to go to a third team along with draft capital),” Hollinger wrote.
That structure would allow James to earn approximately $23 million during the first season of his new contract while giving the Lakers assets instead of watching him depart in free agency.
Lakers Could Add Young Talent for Luka Dončić Era
For Los Angeles, the appeal extends beyond simply receiving compensation.
The Lakers have spent the past year reshaping the franchise around Luka Dončić, who has emerged as the organization’s long-term cornerstone.
Adding a young player such as Richard, along with additional draft assets generated through a multi-team transaction, would better align with the Lakers’ evolving timeline than losing James outright.
While no package could fully replace a four-time NBA champion and four-time MVP, a sign-and-trade would at least provide president of basketball operations Rob Pelinka with assets that could be incorporated into the roster or used in future deals.
It would also preserve greater roster-building flexibility as the Lakers continue constructing a contender around Dončić, Austin Reaves and their next generation.
Anthony Davis Trade Must Happen First
GettySACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA – DECEMBER 19: Anthony Davis and LeBron James of the Los Angeles Lakers point down court after a turnover in their game against the Sacramento Kings in the second half at Golden 1 Center on December 19, 2024 in Sacramento, California.
The financial pathway begins elsewhere.
Yahoo Sports’ Kevin O’Connor reported that league sources expect the Warriors to pursue a trade for Davis before attempting to recruit James.
ESPN’s Shams Charania added another key development Monday by reporting that Draymond Green declined his $27.7 million player option, creating additional financial flexibility for Golden State.
According to Hollinger’s calculations, acquiring Davis while adding veteran center Al Horford, accounting for De’Anthony Melton’s player option and signing second-round pick Lajae Jones would still leave the Warriors roughly $24 million below the NBA’s first apron.
That financial room makes both the midlevel exception and a sign-and-trade possible.
LeBron James’ Decision Still Drives Everything
Despite the financial roadmap, the biggest question remains James himself.
Washington has publicly maintained its desire to keep Davis, making any blockbuster trade uncertain.
Even if Golden State acquires Davis, James would still have to decide that joining Stephen Curry, Green and his longtime championship teammate represents his best remaining opportunity to compete for another title.
From the Lakers’ perspective, Hollinger’s analysis provides one encouraging takeaway.
If James ultimately chooses Golden State, Los Angeles may not be forced to lose one of the greatest players in franchise history for nothing.
Instead, a carefully structured sign-and-trade could soften the blow while giving the Lakers additional assets to accelerate the Dončić era.
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