The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the prohibitive favorites to win the 2026 NBA Finals for the entire season, but after their Game 1 loss in the Western Conference Finals in double-overtime to the San Antonio Spurs, their odds to win the series and the championship have taken a sharp drop.
The Thunder have been the most dominant team in the NBA over the past few seasons, and even heading into their series against the Spurs, a team they lost to four times in the regular season, they were still odds-on favorites to advance to the Finals.
However, after their Game 1 loss, that has changed, and Oklahoma City suddenly doesn’t look like the powerhouse they had been in the past
After suffering their first loss of the season, the Thunder’s odds to advance to the Finals, and even with their series against the Spurs, have shifted drastically ahead of Game 2.
Thunder Get Bad News With Updated Odds On Spurs Series
GettyOKLAHOMA CITY, OKLAHOMA – MAY 18: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 of the Oklahoma City Thunder reacts during the fourth quarter against the San Antonio Spurs in Game One of the NBA Western Conference Finals at Paycom Center on May 18, 2026 in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.
Heading into the series, the Thunder had a 70% chance to beat San Antonio and play for their second championship in a row.
They had staggering -165 odds according to most major sportsbooks and a 59% per major prediction markets to win the 2026 NBA Finals, but after their Game 1 loss, those numbers look very different.
They now have +125 to win the Finals according to DraftKings, and a 43% chance of doing so, according to Polymarket.
Heading into Game 2, OKC is now roughly even with the Spurs to win the series, as both teams sit at roughly 50% on prediction markets and close to even money on sportsbooks.
Before Game 1: Thunder – 70% chance Spurs – 33%
Going into Game 2: Thunder – 52% Spurs – 50%
No team has ever lost Games 1 and 2 at home and come back to win the Conference Finals.
Thunder odds to win both the series and NBA Finals were high heading into the Western Conference Finals, but after Victor Wembanyama‘s historically dominant performance, many oddsmakers, and the public in general, suddenly don’t feel so confident about them repeating as champions.
That’s bad news for the Thunder because, after being the favorites for so long, all of a sudden they look beatable.
They still have the best odds to win the championship compared to the other three teams still in the playoffs, and are expected to win Game 2, but after their loss on Monday night, the defending champions have opened the door on another franchise hoisting the title.
Thunder Vs Spurs Game 2, What Needs To Change For OKC?
OKLAHOMA CITY, OKLAHOMA – MAY 18: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 is interviewed with teammates Chet Holmgren #7 and Isaiah Hartenstein #55 of the Oklahoma City Thunder after beating the Denver Nuggets 125-93 in Game Seven of the Western Conference Second Round NBA Playoffs at Paycom Center on May 18, 2025 in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.
Despite the incredible showing from Wembanyama, the Thunder had multiple chances to win Game 1 over the Spurs. They led the game in three-point shooting, steals, points off turnovers, and gave up the ball less, but were dominated in the rebounding battle and obviously, failed to contain San Antonio’s best player.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, on the night he received his MVP trophy, also left a bit on the table for Oklahoma City. He finished with 24 points on 7/23 shooting, but was benched at multiple points at the end of the game while the Thunder were on defense.
After the Game 1 loss, the two-time MVP was blunt about what needs to change.
“We just got to be better — me, in particular,” he said to reporters postgame. “I have to be better, especially against a team of this caliber. Nothing more than that.”
While Alex Caruso led OKC with 31 points on 8/14 shooting from three-point range, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein, and the rest of the supporting cast didn’t live up to their regular season form.
It could have been nerves, but considering who the Thunder are and what they’ve accomplished, it might be that the Spurs have their number, as they’ve now gone 5-1 against them since the start of the season.
As mentioned, OKC is favored in Game 2, and will likely bounce back with a stronger performance than what they showed in Game 1. However, a loss could put them in a bad situation, and according to the odds, regardless of what happens on Wednesday night, it looks like San Antonio is giving them the most competition that they’ve seen in the past few years.
Thunder vs Spurs Game 2 tips off at 7:30 pm CST on Wednesday, May 20, and will be live on NBC and Peacock. It’s as must-win as games come for OKC, and their odds for the series and Finals reflect that.
OKC Thunder Get Concerning News For Spurs Series Ahead Of Game 2