The Denver Broncos may have just received a surprising bit of clarity regarding one of their most important offseason decisions.
As ESPN analyst Bill Barnwell rolled out his latest free agency tiers, J.K. Dobbins landed in Tier 4 among running backs.
Alongside that designation came a projected average annual salary range of “$3-7 million.”
For a player who averaged 5.0 yards per carry in 2025 before suffering a foot injury, that number could represent real value for Denver.
Barnwell’s free agency projection places Dobbins’ ceiling at $7 million per year. For a Broncos team expected to prioritize offensive weapons around quarterback Bo Nix, that figure suddenly makes retaining the veteran back far more realistic than many initially anticipated.
J.K. Dobbins’ Productive Season Cut Short
Before his season ended after 10 games, Dobbins was quietly putting together one of the more efficient rushing campaigns of his career. He finished the regular season with 772 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 153 carries, averaging an even 5.0 yards per attempt.
Dobbins topped 100 rushing yards twice, including a 111-yard performance against Dallas and a 101-yard outing against Cincinnati. He consistently provided early-down efficiency while complementing rookie RJ Harvey, who flashed scoring ability but averaged just 3.7 yards per carry.
After J.K. Dobbins went down in Week 10, the Broncos’ rushing attack fell off dramatically. Denver dropped from averaging 128.6 rushing yards per game and 4.76 yards per carry, both top 10 marks, to just 104.6 yards per game and 3.94 yards per carry. Without him, those numbers dropped enough to push Denver into the bottom 10 in both rushing yards per game and yards per carry.
In a backfield that lacked consistency late in the year, Dobbins was the stabilizer when healthy. His blend of vision and burst fit well within Sean Payton’s system. He also proved to be a reliable between the tackles runner, consistently finishing runs through contact and keeping the offense on schedule in short yardage situations.
This was something the Broncos really struggled with in Dobbins’ absence.
However, the concern with Dobbins has always been durability.
J.K. Dobbins has dealt with multiple injuries throughout his career, and he played just 10 games in 2025 after another foot issue ended his year.
Many around the league have assumed Denver would simply move on and look elsewhere because of his history with injuries.
Dobbins Projection Could Shift the Broncos’ Approach
That assumption may now need revisiting.
The Broncos have already been connected to bigger-name options at running back in both free agency and potential trade discussions. That list includes Kenneth Walker II, Breece Hall, Tyler Allgeier, among others.
Because of that, many expected Dobbins to price himself out of Denver or become the odd man out in a reshaped backfield.
But a $3 to $7 million projection changes everything.
At the high end, $7 million annually is hardly prohibitive for a team trying to remain competitive in the AFC.
It would allow Denver to maintain continuity in the backfield while still exploring upgrades at wide receiver and tight end. It also keeps flexibility intact should the Broncos choose to add another complementary piece.
At that price point, the Broncos can also afford to take on the injury risk. Dobbins’ durability questions are real, but a short term deal in that range limits long-term exposure while preserving upside.
If Barnwell’s projection proves accurate, the narrative around Dobbins’ future in Denver could shift quickly.
Broncos Catch Break With New J.K. Dobbins Contract Projection