The Houston Texans could be primed for their best season yet under head coach DeMeco Ryans, as long as they can avoid a worst-case scenario from quarterback C.J. Stroud.
Stroud looms as arguably the greatest swing factor in the NFL, backed by one of–if not the–best defenses in the NFL. However, a poor playoff performance left a sour taste, and speculation has grown about his future with the organization this offseason.
A new prediction calls for another strong season from the Texans, and it hinges on Stroud.
C.J. Stroud Key to Texans Prediction
GettyThe Houston Texans could see C.J. Stroud bounce back in a big way, thanks to their roster moves.
Stroud and the Texans have not made much progress on a contract extension, creating an air of uncertainty around the QB ahead of his fourth NFL season.
He is signed through the 2027 season, but Stroud seemed destined to reset the market after his rookie season. With perceived regression over the past two seasons, he has become the Texans’ biggest question mark in the public’s eye.
ESPN’s Benjamin Solak believes Stroud will bounce back and propel the Texans once again.
“It feels like many people are selling Texans stock following C.J. Stroud’s playoff disaster class in 2025. I’m happy to scoop it all up at a discount,” Solak wrote on July 1.
“This is an example of the correct explanation being the simplest one: Stroud — coming off a concussion, in his first year of the Nick Caley offense and playing in inclement weather — was just trying to do too much. He had 10 giveaways in two games. He just fell apart.”
Stroud’s passing yards and interception rate both improved after his return. His touchdown rate (0.1%) and passer rating (1.1 points) fell. His rushing production cratered. The Texans went 6-0.
“Stroud’s bad games trend more disastrous than those of other QBs because he’s a big-play hunter,” Solak wrote. “He also has no running game to rely on, which was a big offseason focus for the Texans.”
Solak noted the Texans’ defense was second in points allowed per drive behind the Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks and ranks 15th against the pass since 2011.
The Texans’ defense gives them a high floor, but Stroud controls their ceiling.
Stroud led the Texans to back-to-back AFC South titles during his first two seasons. A slow start from them, combined with hot ones by division rivals the Indianapolis Colts, who tailed off, and the eventual champs the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2025 underscored Houston’s slip in 2025.
Texans Get ‘Disclaimer’ Over AFC Rival
GettyC.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans will need to meet the Denver Broncos in the playoffs to exact their revenge.
Solak has been a staunch detractor of the Texans’ running game during Stroud’s tenure, but there is an even more ominous threat to their success. That is particularly true after the front office revamped the offensive line and added David Montgomery.
However, an even more ominous threat looms, with Solak providing a “disclaimer”:
“I reserve the right to change this prediction before Week 1 as we get more news about Denver quarterback Bo Nix’s ankle and health. The Broncos’ roster is so stinking good.”
The Broncos were one of the five teams to defeat the Texans during the 2025 regular season, downing them in a Week 9 contest in Houston. That was also the same game in which Stroud suffered his concussion while trying to scramble.
The Broncos went on to face the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game.
It was the Patriots who defeated Stroud and the Texans in the Divisional Round. New England earned the right to reach the Super Bowl, defeating the Broncos 10-7.
Nix missed that contest. He and the Broncos notably needed an 11-point fourth-quarter rally with Stroud sidelined to win that contest. That is an encouraging note for Stroud and the Texans to hand their collective hat on.
The two teams will not face each other in 2026, barring a postseason matchup.
Texans Get New Prediction With AFC Rival Looming as Major Threat