The Jacksonville Jaguars completed one of the NFL’s largest turnarounds in 2025, climbing from four victories to a 13-4 record and the AFC South title.
They closed the regular season on an eight-game winning streak.
Six months later, the market is treating that breakthrough like a temporary surge.
DraftKings lowered Jacksonville’s win total from 9.5 in February to 8.5 by June 1, where it remained on July 1. The sportsbook also made the Jaguars -130 to miss the playoffs, while moving their Super Bowl odds from +2200 to +3000, via CBS Sports.
Prediction markets have landed in a similar place.
As of July 16, Polymarket gave the Houston Texans a 44% chance to win the AFC South, compared with 33% for Jacksonville.
A June 23 Sports Illustrated review found that Kalshi and ESPN each placed the Jaguars’ playoff probability at 54%, with ESPN projecting a 9-8 finish.
A slight step backward would make sense after a 13-win season.
But the current expectations leave room for a much larger correction.
Markets Are Pricing a Steep Regression
There is a case for skepticism.
Jacksonville forced 31 turnovers last season after producing an NFL-low nine in 2024.
The Jaguars led the league with 110 points off takeaways and finished second with 22 interceptions, per the team’s season review.
Those numbers will be difficult to repeat.
Jacksonville also lost running back Travis Etienne Jr. and linebacker Devin Lloyd, while the team did not add direct replacements on either side of the ball.
Additionally, Jacksonville’s pass catchers dropped 40 of 417 catchable targets, producing an NFL-high 9.6% drop rate, according to Pro Football Focus.
Nonetheless, the group still ranked among the NFL’s top 10 in contested receptions.
The Jaguars also finished with a plus-138 point differential, the fourth-best mark in the NFL. They scored a franchise-record 474 points, ranked sixth in scoring and produced 55 touchdowns.
Their improvement held up across other efficiency measures as well.
Jacksonville jumped from 26th to sixth in total DVOA and ranked in the top half of the NFL on offense, defense and special teams. Only four other teams reached that standard.
A team built entirely on fortunate bounces typically won’t grade that well in every phase.
Trevor Lawrence Gives Jaguars a Higher Floor
GettyJacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence.
The biggest reason to believe Jacksonville can absorb some defensive regression is Trevor Lawrence.
Lawrence passed for 4,007 yards, 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions during his first season with Liam Coen. He added 359 rushing yards and nine scores, setting a franchise record with 38 total touchdowns.
His production gives the Jaguars a more stable foundation than usual teams that depend almost exclusively on non-QB play like takeaways.
Jacksonville also proved capable against stronger opponents.
NFL.com found that the Jaguars went 5-3 with a plus-28 point differential against teams that reached the 2025 playoffs. They finished third in defensive EPA per play and 12th on offense.
NFL.com writer Tom Blair wrote that he initially expected regression before reviewing those results.
He eventually projected Jacksonville to finish 13-4 again and win the AFC South, while fellow writer Ali Bhanpuri left the Jaguars outside the playoffs.
That split points to the debate.
Jacksonville may not force 31 turnovers again, and matching 13 victories remains a demanding target. But the Jaguars don’t need to repeat every part of last season to beat an 8.5-win expectation.
A decline from 13 wins to 10 would still make them a serious playoff team.
Current odds are pricing a deeper fall, despite an ascending quarterback, coaching continuity and evidence that Jacksonville’s success moves past the turnovers.
That makes the Jaguars one of the NFL’s most underrated teams entering 2026.
Jacksonville Jaguars Face Bleak 2026 Regression Forecast