The Kansas City Chiefs will probably never consider trading quarterback Patrick Mahomes, but if they do, the return will be astronomical.
ESPN’s Bill Barnwell wrote his annual trade value column on Thursday, July 16 and dubbed Mahomes as worth a whopping seven first-round draft picks. The only player with equal value, according to Barnwell, is Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen.
Barnwell’s valuation is something of a surprise given that Mahomes is turning 31 years old in September and coming off the worst injury of his career, a torn ACL that he suffered during Week 15 in mid-December of 2025.
“I’m of the opinion that Allen is the best quarterback in football at the moment, having outplayed Mahomes over the past three seasons, but Mahomes’ postseason halo and remarkably consistent success before 2025 would undoubtedly charm teams, too,” Barnwell wrote.
“There would be some hesitation about committing too many future picks given his age and the knee injury,” Barnwell continued. “But that could still mean a decade of high-level quarterback play from arguably the best player of his generation.”
Josh Allen Supplanted Patrick Mahomes on List of Top QBs
GettyBuffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen.
Mahomes came in second place to Allen in the annual survey of positional talent that ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler conducts every summer.
Fowler spoke with several NFL coaches, executives and scouts to gather top-10 rankings. This offseason was the first time Allen outranked Mahomes in the polling. Mahomes finished No. 1 on the list each of the past three summers.
“After three consecutive seasons of subpar production (for his standards), Mahomes relinquishes his crown for at least one year, despite leading all QBs in first-place votes,” Fowler wrote. “The Chiefs have struggled to run effectively in recent years, and the receiver trio of Xavier Worthy, Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown never blossomed into a consistent threat.”
Chiefs Lack High-End Weapons for Patrick Mahomes
GettyKansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid and tight end Travis Kelce.
Fowler’s final point carries significant weight, as the personnel around Mahomes matters more with each passing year.
Travis Kelce is back for his 14th season, but he’s not the player he was at his peak. Meanwhile, Rice is rehabbing following knee surgery, which an abrupt 30-day jail sentence for probation violation interrupted.
Worthy is also coming back from an injury-plagued year in 2025, while Brown is no longer in Kansas City.
The Chiefs spent big to add reigning Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III as their lead running back this offseason, but the offensive line continues forward with significant question marks.
Kansas City remains a prime candidate to add a veteran wide receiver in free agency or via a trade. However, the best options present questions of their own.
Former Chiefs wideout Tyreek Hill has struggled through several off-field issues and suffered a catastrophic injury early in 2025. Stefon Diggs has now cleared up his own legal problems but could command upwards of $15 million annually, which is a lot for the Chiefs to spend on a pass-catcher who turns 33 in November.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes’ Absurd Trade Value Tops NFL