The Minnesota Vikings‘ signing of quarterback Kyler Murray was an absolute boon but no matter how it plays out this season, the franchise will be on the losing end come year’s end.
Minnesota’s league minimum deal for Murray, a starting-caliber quarterback who is a multiple Pro Bowl selection and a former No. 1 overall pick, is probably the best value contract in the entire league in 2026.
If Murray doesn’t play well, or if he gets injured, it’s essentially a no harm, no foul situation — save for the fact that the fans would have to suffer through another season of wide receiver Justin Jefferson’s prime wasted, and that head coach Kevin O’Connell might end up in danger of losing his job.
But if Murray does succeed, the Vikings are going to be stuck between two incredibly difficult choices: let another quality QB walk out the door, like they did with Sam Darnold before he won the Super Bowl with the Seattle Seahawks last season, or pay Murray a massive amount of money after a relatively small sample size of proof of concept as the undersized and injury-prone signal-caller heads into his 30s.
Baker Mayfield’s Deal Will Push Up Kyler Murray’s Asking Price if He Plays Well
The Vikings were always going to face this double-edged sword by signing Murray over the offseason, but the three-year, $165 million deal that Baker Mayfield inked with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers has drawn a line in the sand that will inevitably jack up Murray’s asking price.
Minnesota also agreed to a clause in Murray’s contract that will make keeping him off the free-agent market impossible if the Vikings don’t agree to the QB’s desired terms on an extension.
Dan Graziano of ESPN wrote about the situation on Sunday, September 13.
Talk about a make-or-break year. Murray was owed about $37 million guaranteed from the Cardinals for this season. They released him, and that allowed the Vikings to sign him for a veteran-minimum $1.3 million and leave the Cardinals to pay the remaining $35.7 million. The Vikings have named Murray their starter ahead of 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy. Murray’s contract includes a clause that prohibits them from using the franchise or transition tags on him next spring. So, if he has a huge year, they have no way of keeping him off the unfettered free agent market.
That no-franchise clause is a whopper in terms of leverage. If Murray plays great and hits free agency next year at 29 years old, he’ll sail past Mayfield — and [Dak] Prescott.
Kyler Murray Could Command More Than $60 Million Annually From Vikings
Mayfield is making $55 million annually, while the Dallas Cowboys are paying Prescott $60 million per season.
Murray has a big arm and the ability to make plays with his legs, but smaller quarterbacks who rely on athleticism above all else don’t tend to age particularly well in the NFL given the ravages of time and the brutality of 17-game seasons.
The Vikings were worried about overpaying Darnold, and they also had JJ McCarthy in the wings as an untested No. 10 overall pick. Now McCarthy is QB3 and Murray was an unexpected gift that fell into Minnesota’s lap.
Unfortunately for the Vikings, this gift won’t keep on giving, and might start taking — A LOT — very soon.
Vikings Face Lose-Lose Scenario With Kyler Murray After Mayfield Contract