The Minnesota Vikings are betting big on quarterback Kyler Murray as the starter this season after benching JJ McCarthy in his favor — but should that wager hit, and hit big, it could cost the franchise even more.
Phil Mackey of SKOR North on Thursday, September 3 examined the outcome variance for Murray’s career moving forward based on his performance in 2026. And Mackey landed on a massive multiyear contract for the two-time Pro Bowler should things play out in a best-case scenario for Murray in Minnesota this fall.
“We’re looking at historical levels of motivation in terms of, if he plays poorly and/or gets hurt and only plays six games again or something — he’s back on the market as a free agent for a one-year $10 million, maybe $20 million transition job again,” Mackey said. “If it goes as well as it could, where he plays 17 games, he throws for 4,000 yards, they go to the playoffs, it’s one of the two best seasons of his career — we’re probably talking about a three-to-four year contract for a minimum of $40 million per year.”
Kyler Murray Could End Up Playing Different Pro Sport if He Tanks in Minnesota
Bill Barnwell of ESPN on Thursday named Murray as one of two quarterbacks, alongside Baker Mayfield of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, under the most pressure this year.
“Murray has to prove that he can stay healthy and thrive within the context of a new, more popular offensive system,” Barnwell wrote. “If it works out, Murray should have a career year throwing to one of the league’s best sets of receivers. … And after the Vikings let Sam Darnold walk out the door, it’s difficult to imagine that they wouldn’t pay a premium to keep their new starter around for years, a price that will be even richer given the leverage Murray holds with his no-tag clause.”
However, if Murray gets hurt or falters, the opposite end of the outcome spectrum is dire by comparison.
“If Murray can’t stay healthy or isn’t a great fit in the offense, well, he’s probably looking at his last guaranteed starting role,” Barnwell continued. “There will always be interest in a quarterback of Murray’s talents, but he’ll likely be looking at QB competitions (or a return to the baseball diamond) moving forward if things don’t work out in 2026.”
JJ McCarthy’s Demotion, Potential Trade Put More Pressure on Kyler Murray to Succeed Immediately
The stakes are even higher for Murray because Minnesota appears to have all but severed ties with McCarthy, a top 10 pick in the 2024 NFL draft, in favor of Murray.
McCarthy has contributed greatly to the current circumstances, as he struggled as the starter in 2025, didn’t improve enough this offseason, got hurt again during the preseason and has likely lost the QB2 job to Carson Wentz — at least to start the season.
Those developments, coupled with Murray’s ascension, could lead the Vikings to deal McCarthy as soon as before Week 1, or potentially sometime mid-year ahead of the league’s November 10 trade deadline.
If Minnesota permanently benches and/or ultimately parts ways with McCarthy after just 10 career starts, the quarterback the franchise bets on in his stead, in this case Murray, had better to deliver.
Because if he doesn’t, the entire Vikings ship could sink in the process.
Kyler Murray Poised to Cost Vikings Over $150 Million After JJ McCarthy Decision