The New England Patriots briefly appeared to be gaining believers ahead of their first matchup with the Buffalo Bills.
Then their afternoon in Jacksonville unraveled.
The Kalshi prediction market for Sunday’s Patriots-Bills matchup shows a sharp turn surrounding New England’s 35-6 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Patriots had 34% chance to beat Buffalo at 2:05 p.m. ET, during the Jacksonville game.
By 4:16 p.m. — shortly after the blowout was complete — New England had dropped to 21%.
The Patriots recovered some of that ground, returning to 28% by the evening of Sept. 29. But the market never returned to that 34% mark. New England has instead settled into roughly a 26%-28% range, with Kalshi listing the Patriots around 27% and Buffalo around 73% Sunday morning.
It provides a striking look of how one ugly afternoon changed the outlook for last season’s AFC champions.
Jaguars Loss Wiped Out Patriots’ Market Momentum
There was little in New England’s Week 3 performance to inspire confidence ahead of a trip to Buffalo.
The Patriots lost 35-6 in Jacksonville, falling to 1-2 after producing only two field goals. The Jaguars scored 35 points after New England briefly cut the deficit to 7-3 in the second quarter, via the Patriots’ official scoring summary.
Drake Maye finished 14-of-25 for 199 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions. Tommy DeVito replaced him late with the game out of reach.
The happening lines up with the steepest movement visible in the Pats-Bills Kalshi market.
Kalshi’s Week 4 preview described the loss as so thorough that Mike Vrabel finished the game with DeVito at quarterback. It also highlighted Maye’s seven turnovers through three games.
The Patriots have since stabilized in the market, but traders have stopped well short of restoring the confidence they showed before the Jacksonville result was settled.
New England was back to 28% on Sept. 29. The market remained in the same general neighborhood Sunday morning instead of pushing back toward the mid-30s.
This is a team coming off a Super Bowl appearance, so it’s a notable shift in perception following three games.
Bills Remain Clear Favorite in AFC East Matchup
The opponent helps explain why the recovery has been limited.
The Buffalo Bills enter Sunday at 3-0, while the Patriots are 1-2. New England will also make its first regular-season visit to Buffalo’s new Highmark Stadium, per the Patriots’ official Week 4 game preview.
Kalshi had Buffalo around 73% to win Sunday morning, making Josh Allen and the Bills substantial favorites in the prediction market.
Traditional expert predictions tell an almost indentical story.
In the Patriots’ roundup of Week 4 picks, ESPN’s Mike Reiss picked Buffalo 27-20, while every other ESPN analyst listed also selected the Bills. NFL.com’s Jeremy Bergman predicted a narrower 24-21 Buffalo win.
New England heads into the matchup without two prominent defensive players. The Patriots ruled out Christian Gonzalez and Christian Barmore with shoulder injuries, adding another challenge against Allen and Buffalo’s offense.
A probability in the upper 20s still leaves New England with an upset avenue. The Patriots also won in Buffalo last season, 23-20.
The direction of the market is what stands out, although Sunday affords New England a moment to reverse that perception on the field.
Patriots Optimism vs. Bills Tanked and Didn’t Recover After Jaguars Loss, Per Odds