Getty Seahawks QB Geno Smith and 49ers QB Brock Purdy
The Seattle Seahawks are getting no respect ahead of their crucial NFC West Week 14 matchup with the San Francisco 49ers. Despite an impressive showing in a 41-35 Week 13 loss to the Dallas Cowboys, Geno Smith and the Seahawks head into the 49ers game facing the biggest point spread the organization has seen in more than a decade.
Seahawks are Huge Underdogs to 49ers in Week 14
The Seahawks are +12.5 underdogs heading into their Week 14 NFC West showdown with the 49ers, according to FanDuel. That is the biggest spread the team has faced since Week 2 of the 2011 season when they were +13.5 dogs to the Pittsburgh Steelers, per sports betting analyst Ben Fawkes on X/Twitter.
This Seahawks point spread represents how good the 49ers are and how badly the team beat Seattle just two weeks ago. In Week 12, the Niners took down Geno Smith and company 31-13, easily covering the -7 spread.
Then, in Week 13, the 49ers showed that — when fully healthy — they are the best team in the NFL right now. Brock Purdy and the offense started slow, not completing a single pass until almost five minutes into the second quarter. However, after that, San Francisco ripped off 42 points to beat the NFC’s first-place team, the Philadelphia Eagles, 42-19.
While the 49ers do look like a buzzsaw right now, the Seahawks acquitted themselves well in their own Week 13 showdown against a top NFC East team.
Seattle came into their Thursday night tilt with the Cowboys +8.5 dogs but only lost by six points after holding a five-point lead late into the fourth quarter.
The bad news for Seahawks fans is that the last time Vegas pegged the team as huge dogs Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers easily covered, beating Tarvaris Jackson and Seattle 24-0 back in 2011.
There is a small amount of good news as well. Heavy Sports’ projections, powered by Quarter4, doesn’t see this game as the blowout most sportsbooks do. This model pins the spread at just 9.5 but does only give the Seahawks a 20% chance to win straight up.
Geno Smith was Excellent in Week 13 and is the Key to 49ers Matchup
Whether the Seahawks cover the spread or not in Week 13 against the 49ers may simply come down to how quarterback Geno Smith plays.
Seattle is in the midst of a three-game skid and has lost four of its last five games. In the first three of those four losses, Smith hasn’t been good. His passing yards in the losses to the Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Rams, and 49ers were 157, 233, and 180, respectively. His QBR — a stat ESPN uses to measure quarterback efficiency — in those games was 14.0, 64.3, and 15.7. For context, the NFL’s QBR leaders on the season are Purdy and Dak Prescott at 75.6, and the worst in the league (among qualified QBs) is Zach Wilson at 30.3.
However, looking at QBR, Smith may have started to turn things around in Week 13. The Seahawks QB led the league in QBR with a 91.1 mark, per uStadium on X/Twitter. The Green Bay Packers’ Jordan Love and Miami Dolphins‘ Tua Tagovailoa came in second at 90.3.
Smith earned this grade by throwing for 334 yards with three touchdowns and one interception. This was Smith’s highest QBR of the season and his highest since he recorded a 91.4 QBR in Week 3 against the Detroit Lions last season.
If Smith can once again dial it up and play to the level of the best QBs in the league, the Seahawks will have a chance to not only cover the 12.5-point spread but maybe even win the game against the 49ers.
If not, the team may be in big trouble and in danger of dropping to a potentially playoff-missing 6-7 on the season.