They aren’t sure about the status of primary wide receiver Terry McLaurin for international duty against the Indianapolis Colts at London’s Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, but the Washington Commanders can trust All-Pro pass-catcher Stefon Diggs to take advantage of a perfect matchup in Week 4.
Diggs is expected to feast against the Colts for three compelling reasons. First, the 33-year-old “has posted a solid 1.8 yards per route run this season, but the fact that he is being targeted on 33% of his routes suggests his production could be even stronger going forward,” according to ESPN’s Seth Walder.
The latter predicts Diggs “will record at least 85 receiving yards. So far, Diggs’ season high is 55 yards.”
That number could be even higher if go-to target McLaurin’s dodgy hamstring limits or rules him out in North London. Diggs would become the featured receiver for stand-in starting quarterback Marcus Mariota.
He’ll have no problem looking Diggs’ way the more Commanders’ offensive coordinator David Blough isolates the seven-time 1,000-yard receiver against the weak link in the Colts’ coverage.
Stefon Diggs Primed to Face ‘Perfect’ Matchup
Diggs is the ideal veteran “to exploit Justin Walley in the slot,” per NFL.com’s Jeremy Bergman. Walley’s “allowed 13 receptions on 15 targets for 213 yards and two TDs in the slot, the most yards allowed by any defender and 84 more than the next-closest CB. Opponents have recorded a perfect 158.3 passer rating when targeting Walley in those matchups, per Next Gen Stats.”
Bergman pointed out the Commanders have two playmakers capable of heaping more misery on Walley. They are “rookie Antonio Williams, who boasts a team-high +27.2% CROE and +8.7 receiving EPA when targeted in the slot; and veteran Stefon Diggs, who has run a team-high 44 routes out of the slot this season.”
Diggs appears primed to target Walley more often. He’ll be the senior man if McLaurin isn’t at full speed, but either way, Diggs remains the most active and effective target over the middle for these Commanders.
Blough can turn Diggs loose on the crossing patterns he runs about as well as anybody in the NFL. Those routes will give Mariota easy reads and quick throws to move the chains and stay away from the elaborate pressure packages Colts’ defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo prefers on third down.
Fortunately, Mariota already has a rapport with Diggs in the most important area of the field.
Marcus Mariota Needs to Lean on Commanders’ Veteran
Diggs didn’t binge on catches during the epic upset of the Seattle Seahawks in Week 3, but it was still significant Mariota threw his way seven times, per Pro Football Reference. The two have swiftly forged a useful connection that’s already borne fruit in scoring areas.
Mariota found Diggs for a 20-yard touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 2. The wideout got free as the inside receiver from a bunch formation.
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Formations like this one are a clever way for the Commanders to maximize Diggs’ innate talent for winning from the slot. He’s still seeing so many targets, despite one notable and costly mental lapse to start the season, because Diggs hasn’t lost the knack for getting open.
Mariota needs to lean on that core talent in his second-straight start, with Jayden Daniels still held out to protect his dislocated elbow. The Commanders can trust Mariota to carry the load after the way he took his shots against the Seahawks.
Most of those shots went to McLaurin, who bossed the defending Super Bowl champions on a new route designed by Blough. It’s Diggs’ turn to benefit from special plans this week.
Commanders Get Bold Stefon Diggs Prediction for ‘Perfect’ Matchup