The FIFA World Cup 2026 semifinals are right around the corner. With it, the expectation of finding out which two teams will duke it out for the Jules Rimet Trophy.
The final four, France, Spain, England, and Argentina, are all worthy champions. They have the talent and the pedigree to become the world champions.
But looking at a more objective measure of victory, the AI models by the folks at Oddschecker have revealed which team has the best chance of winning the FIFA World Cup 2026. The results are hardly surprising.
Here are the data the AI model projects based on the probability of winning it all:
- France 42%
- England 25%
- Spain 19%
- Argentina 14%
It’s interesting to see the defending champs ranked the lowest among the final four. The numbers likely reflect the struggles the South American side has had in its knockout round matches.
Argentina needed extra time to get past Cape Verde and Switzerland, while pulling off a stunning last-minute comeback against Egypt. That situation seems to have weighed on Lionel Messi’s chance of making it back-to-back championships.
Meanwhile, the relative ease with which France and England have reached the semis likely boosts their chances of emerging victorious at the FIFA World Cup 2026. The wild card, it seems, is Spain. If they can upset France, all bets will be off.
Messi Overwhelming Favorite to Win FIFA World Cup 2026 Golden Boot
Paradoxically, the overwhelming favorite to take the Golden Boot at the FIFA World Cup 2026 is Messi. Oddschecker’s model shows at 71% probability of the Inter Miami star beating out French striker Kylian Mbappe. The model showed Mbappe with a 23% of taking home the honors.
Harry Kane rounded out the top three, garnering an 11% chance of bringing home the Golden Boot.
As Oddschecker spokesman Chris Rogers noted, the FIFA World Cup 2026 Golden Boot looks to be landing with Messi.
“Leo Messi has been in sensational form for Argentina and is tied with Kylian Mbappe for the Golden Boot. Bookmaker odds and Oddschecker AI projections are conflicted on the eventual winner.”
It seems the AI models favor Messi to win a major individual award, even if his team may not be in the best position to take home another championship. Still, it seems like another France-Argentina clash might be on the horizon in this year’s championship match.
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Argentina Banking on Another Gutsy Performance from Messi
The Argentine side will be banking on one last gutsy performance from Messi. He’s been solid in this year’s tourney, seemingly defying his 39-year-old body. He hasn’t shown signs of slowing down despite playing a high-tempo game throughout the tourney.
However, it was the supporting cast that came up big in the quarterfinal match against Switzerland. Alexis MacAllister, Lautaro Martinez, and Julian Alvarez were the strikers in the 3-1 win on Saturday night.
But it will take more than just Messi’s magic to get past Harry Kane and the English. The entire Argentinian squad will have to be perfect if they plan to advance to the FIFA World Cup 2026 Final.
FIFA World Cup 2026 Winner AI Projections Favor France