Heading into the FIFA World Cup 2026, not many pundits would have picked Lionel Messi to play such a dominant role.
But after five goals in two matches, it seems the narrative is shifting. And now, the Argentine superstar figures to be the frontrunner for the Golden Boot.
A new study by the folks at Oddschecker shows that its proprietary AI projections show Messi topping the probability of capturing this year’s Golden Boot. The projections show the Inter Miami striker with a 59% chance of taking home the scoring title.
Meanwhile, another strong contender, France’s Kylian Mbappe, ranks second with a 41% chance. The star has four tallies in two matches. Other contenders, such as Norway’s Erling Haaland, come closest at 12%, who also boasts four goals.
The current numbers paint a remarkable turnaround. At the outset of the FIFA World Cup 2026, the AI projections showed Messi with just a 6%. Mbappe topped the initial prediction with 17%.
What seemed the most interesting was that Oddschecker’s research showed that fans had placed an overwhelming number of bets on Michael Olise. Unfortunately, the French star has yet to find the back of the net. There might still be time for Olise to gain ground, but he is running out of runway.
Goalscorers Leading Way at FIFA World Cup 2026
As for the action on the pitch, it’s been a higher-than-usual goal total that has jumped off the page. Unlike other tourneys, there have been several blowout games, such as Germany’s 7-1 pounding over Curacao, and Canada’s 6-0 win over Qatar.
That’s why it should be no surprise that strikers like Lionel Messi have had such a strong showing at the FIFA World Cup 2026.
As Oddschecker spokesman Chris Rogers points out, it’s the scorers that are leading the way.
“Goalscorers have taken centre stage at the World Cup. Messi has lit up the tournament and leads the scoring charts with five goals. All signs point to Messi winning the Golden Boot in his final World Cup campaign; Oddschecker AI projections give the Inter Miami captain a 59% likelihood of scooping the top scorer accolade.”
If the trends hold up, Messi and Argentina could be on their way to a shot at back-to-back titles.
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Superstar Dominating in Final Shot at Glory
One of the narratives heading into the FIFA World Cup 2026 was the fact that this tourney could be the last ride for Lionel Messi.
The 39-year-old superstar wasn’t initially thought of as a full-time starter for the Albiceleste. Yet, his hat trick in the opening match against Algeria vindicated manager Lionel Scaloni’s decision to insert him into the starting lineup.
Now, Argentina looks dominant, particularly after surviving a strong challenge from Austria. The South American squad has one more match in the group stage. Their showdown against Jordan should serve as a bellwether for Argentina as they head into the knockout round.
Whether or not Argentina makes it back-to-back championships remains unclear. But it would be a fair send-off for Messi to claim the Golden Boot at the FIFA World Cup 2026.
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