Presidential Polls 2016: Trump Faces Major Deficit With Young Voters

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Donald Trump in Maine on August 4. (Getty)

Since Republicans lost the White House in 2012, the party has trying to be reaching out to young voters, but they have failed to do so with Donald Trump as their candidate, the latest polls show. On August 4, the new McClatchy-Marist poll showed Trump coming in fourth place among voters 18-29 behind third-party candidates Jill Stein and Gary Johnson. This isn’t the first poll to reveal Trump’s lack of appeal to youth voters.

Clinton has opened a significant lead over Trump since the Democratic National Convention ended. After the latest polls, Clinton has an average lead of 6.7 percent over Trump. Overall, the McClatchy-Marist poll showed Clinton with 45 percent support, with Trump at 31 percent. Johnson, the Libertarian candidate, received 10 percent support.

Here’s a look at how Trump has done against Hillary Clinton among youth voters.


McClatchy-Marist Poll – August 2016

The McClatchy-Marist poll was a survey of 1,132 adults from August 1-3. It shows Clinton leading Trump 41 percent to 9 percent with voters 18-29. Both Johnson and Stein were ahead of Trump, 23 percent and 16 percent, respectively. However, the poll also showed that 8 percent were undecided and 1 percent planned on voting for another candidate.

Trump does better as the voters get older, but still has a significant gap to make up. In the 30-44 age group, Clinton has 44 percent support to Trump’s 29 percent. Trump only reaches 40 percent support in the 60 or older group.

The margin for error on the poll was 3.1 percent.

Candidate Percentage Points Among Voters 18-29
Trump 9
Clinton 41
Johnson 23
Stein 16

Harvard Institute of Politics Spring 2016 Poll – April 2016

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Hillary Clinton in Las Vegas on August 4. (Getty)

In April, Harvard Institute of Politics published a poll of 18-29 year-old voters, which showed a stunning difference between Republican and Democrat support among millennials. Of those surveyed, it found that 61 percent want a Democrat in the White House, while only 33 percent want a Republican. The poll showed Clinton with 61 percent support overall, with Trump receiving 25 percent. The poll surveyed 3,000 18-29-year-olds between March 18 and April 3, and the margin of error was 2.4 percent.

Candidate Percentage Points
Trump 25
Clinton 61

GenForward Polls Show Clinton Has Struggles Among Young Voters, too

If Clinton hopes to win the White House, she is going to need young voters to turn out like they did for President Barack Obama twice. However, polls from GenForward show that they aren’t all welcoming her with open arms.

One poll released on July 12 showed that just 26 percent of white 18-30-year-olds polled have a positive opinion of Clinton. The poll found that 49 percent of Hispanics in the age group have a positive opinion. A majority of African American voters polled – 55 percent – had a positive view of Clinton.

It is more bleak for Trump though. Only 19 percent of voters have a favorable opinion of Trump. Six percent of African Americans polled had a positive view of Trump.

A GenForward poll released on August 5 shows that 43 percent of young voters think Clinton did break the law in the email scandal. Only 8 percent think she didn’t do anything wrong.

The same poll found that just 38 percent had a favorable view of Clinton and 21 percent had a favorable view of Trump.