Irma Spaghetti Models: Where Will Hurricane Go Next? [Sept. 11]

South Florida Waste Management District Sunday evening spaghetti model.

Hurricane Irma made two landfalls in the U.S. on Sunday: First, it made landfall at Cudjoe Key. Then, it struck Marco Island before heading to Naples, on Florida’s southwest coast.

That has a lot of people asking: Where will Irma go next?

Cyclocane has some of the best real-time spaghetti models. It shows that Irma’s path will take her next, after Florida, through southwest Georgia, northeast Alabama, and then into Tennessee, Kentucky, and then even parts of Indiana and Ohio. It’s not clear how strong the storm will still be there when and if it gets there, though. It’s already weakened to a Category 2. It would probably produce thunderstorms and be “remnants” of the storm.

See the Cyclocane model here. The site also has other maps of the storm, including satellite imagery. The National Center for Atmospheric Research Monday spaghetti model shows a continued westward tilt that is stretching all the way to Illinois, with a heavier effect on Alabama (the storm’s strength will continue to weaken by the time it gets there.)

Other spaghetti models also provide a sense of the hurricane’s latest path, and they tell a similar story. The South Florida Waste Management District has an updated website with the latest spaghetti models.

The Monday spaghetti model from that site shows the path is moving out of Florida (although effects of the storm are felt outside its immediate projected path):

Spaghetti model for Monday.

For comparison purposes: Here’s what the Sunday evening model shows about where Irma is headed next. The map shows a similar path, although it doesn’t show past Alabama and Georgia.

Sunday evening spaghetti plot.

The National Hurricane Center doesn’t use spaghetti plots. Its model shows a very similar future path for the storm. This is the Sunday evening forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center that gives you a sense of the storm’s future path:

Other types of models also showed the same future track:

Don’t forget about Jose!

Here is a wind time arrival map from NHC:

Irma wind arrival time.

You can see a round up of other Irma real-time tracking sites here, including live radar and satellite feeds: