Tropical Storm Cristobal is gaining strength now that it’s back in the Gulf of Mexico. Most forecasters expect it to remain a tropical storm when it makes landfall and not strengthen into a hurricane first. The storm poses risks of flooding for regions in its path.
Cristobal Live Radar & Tracker
This live radar is from Windy.com. This radar is very helpful for tracking the storm’s location. You can press the + button on the right-side of the map to zoom in more closely. You can also move the map ahead in time to see where the storm is forecast to be headed.
Google Maps is also updating the storm’s location here.
Cristobal’s Projected Path Has It Making Landfall in Louisiana
NOAA has a live map for the storm. The picture below is a screenshot but you can see the full map here. NOAA’s projected path for the storm has it making landfall Sunday night in Louisiana.
The Weather Channel noted that Cristobal’s effects are felt far outside the cone you see on maps, meaning even places as far as Florida will feel wind and rain from the storm.
— Stu Ostro (@StuOstro) June 6, 2020
In fact, flooding is a threat in many areas.
Flooding will be a significant threat from Tropical Storm #Cristobal. Widespread areas of 3-5" of rain is possible. Locally, some areas could see over a half a foot of rain. pic.twitter.com/aXGhHYTBvj
— The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) June 6, 2020
Here is the National Hurricane Center’s projected landfall, which estimates the storm will make landfall Sunday night, but it will be felt long before that.
According to the NOAA’s latest update, released at 1 p.m. Central on June 6, Cristobal is currently at 24.7N, 90.2 W, about 310 miles SSW of the mouth of the Mississippi River. It has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and it’s moving N or 360 degrees at 12 mph. The storm’s minimum central pressure is 994 MB or 29.36 inches.
A storm surge warning is in effect for the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi and for Lake Borgne. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Florida line, and for Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.
NOAA noted at 1 p.m. Central:
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 90.2 West. Cristobal is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the north-northwest. On the forecast track, the center of Cristobal will move northward over the central Gulf of Mexico today and tonight, and will be near the northern Gulf of Mexico coast on Sunday. Cristobal’s center is then forecast to move inland across Louisiana late Sunday through Monday morning, and northward across Arkansas and Missouri Monday afternoon into Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast until landfall occurs on the northern Gulf coast. Weakening will begin once Cristobal moves inland late Sunday and Monday.
Regarding storm surge:
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne…3-5 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River…2-4 ft Ocean Springs MS to Marco Island FL including Mobile Bay, Pensacola Bay, and Tampa Bay…1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds and will likely extend along the coast well to the east of the center. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
Regarding rainfall, NOAA writes:
Cristobal is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the eastern and central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with isolated amounts to 12 inches. Isolated significant river flooding is possible along the central Gulf Coast. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding and widespread flooding on smaller streams across the Lower to Mid-Mississippi Valley.
Additional rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected across the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan, bringing isolated storm totals to 25 inches. This will continue the threat of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Remember that tropical storms are unpredictable, so it’s a good idea to stay tuned to local weather for the latest updates.
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