It should come as no surprise that the betting public is running to the window to put money down on the Baltimore Ravens this week. The Ravens are coming off perhaps their best performance of the season, a 41-7 thrashing of the Houston Texans. They enter as a three-point favorite against a talented Los Angeles Rams squad with a struggling quarterback.
Jared Goff has struggled after signing a lucrative contract in the offseason, with just 11 touchdowns and 10 interceptions this year. On the other side, Lamar Jackson has vaulted himself into the MVP race with eye-popping numbers on the ground and through the air. The former Heisman Trophy winner leads the team with 761 yards rushing this season.
We break down the spread and offer our analysis on the line movement for Monday night’s matchup between the Ravens and Rams.
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Ravens vs. Rams Game Details
*All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Line Movement & Analysis:
This line opened as a pick-em and has been bet all the way to Ravens -3 -at most books, according to VegasInsider.com. One book in Las Vegas, Circa Sports, is offering Ravens -3.5 in an effort to induce more action on the Rams. The action heavily favors the road team with Baltimore receiving 78% of the bets and 75% of the money, according to The Action Network.
At first glance, there appears to be some value on the Rams as a home underdog. Considering the Ravens blowout victory last Sunday, the market has overreacted and is now saturated with Baltimore money, setting up a potential sell-high spot for the Ravens.
Analytically speaking, Los Angeles has the third-best rushing defense in the NFL according to DVOA. This indicates the Rams defense could have early-down success against the highly potent Ravens rushing attack led by Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram.
The total opened at 49 and has been bet up slightly to 46.5 at most books with 64% of the bets on the over and 76% of the money coming in on the over. This indicates a sharp reverse line movement in favor of the under.
Based on how the lines are moving and who the public is backing, sharp bettors will taking the points and the under on Monday night.
Prop Bets & Predictions
The analytics and line movement in this matchup point to a low scoring affair that favors the home team. Considering how well the Rams defense has stopped the run this season, I would look to find value on betting under for Baltimore’s rushing yards props, which are most likely to be inflated due to their recent success. Mark Ingram‘s rushing yards prop is currently 54.5 on FanDuel. Ingram has exceeded this number just four times out of 10 games this season.
The Ravens rushing defense has been stout this season as well which makes Todd Gurley an attractive under bet on Monday night. Gurley has looked sluggish this season and is currently going off at 63.5 rushing yards on FanDuel. Gurley has exceeded this number just three times in 10 games this season.
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