A NL East rivalry is set to be renewed in the Wild Card round this postseason. The Philadelphia Phillies are heading South to take on the Atlanta Braves.
Coming into the series, the Phillies struggled lately. That included a 10-15 September and a collapse that nearly left them out of the playoffs entirely. The Braves, meanwhile, have been a major issue for the Phillies this year. They’re 9-4 overall against Philadelphia. Of course, none of that is going to matter if the Phillies can win in the postseason.
Game 1 is set to pit Braves ace Chris Sale against Jesus Luzardo for the Phillies. There are questions about how long Luzardo can go coming off injuries, but nobody doubts that Sale is going to be on top of his game.
The Philadelphia Phillies Were Projected to Struggle With Chris Sale
Going into Game 1, the Braves have the edge on the mound. Still, under the right circumstances, the Phillies’ offense could potentially overcome that advantage.
The problem is that not everyone is expecting them to do that. Some, like Karl Rasmussen of Sports Illustrated, are even projecting that Sale will have a scoreless outing in Game 1.
“Chris Sale will toe the rubber in Game 1 for the Braves, and he’ll see the Phillies lineup for the fifth time this year. Sale made four starts against Philadelphia during the regular season, and he held them in check every time,” Karl Rasmussen wrote.
“The 37-year-old went 3–0 in starts against the Phils, registering a 2.08 ERA with 29 strikeouts and six walks in 26 innings. Sale doesn’t have the best postseason track record, but he’ll be pitching at home, where he owns a 1.66 ERA across 14 starts this season. Philadelphia’s offense has been ice cold of late, recording the second-lowest OPS (.660) in the league in September. The lineup has also struggled on the road this season, logging a .664 OPS away from Citizens Bank Park, which is also second-worst in MLB. That all bodes well for Sale, who has seen more of the Phillies than any other team this year.”
The biggest concern for the Phillies, as Rasmussen pointed out, has to be how the offense is struggling as of late. Their lineup has dealt with injuries, including Luis Arraez recently, which has thinned it out. That has put a ton of pressure on bats like Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber. When they don’t hit, the team doesn’t hit. In four of their final five games, the Phillies scored one run or less.
Sale is likely on a Hall of Fame trajectory, and in 27 games this season he’s remained elite. Sale has a 2.16 ERA, a 0.984 WHIP, and 11.1 strikeouts per nine. It’s arguably a better season than his 2024 Cy Young campaign.
If there is a saving grace for the Phillies, Sale has struggled in the postseason. He may be well remembered for a wipeout slider to clinch the 2018 World Series for the Boston Red Sox, but he has a career 6.35 ERA in 10 career postseason games.
Phillies Earn a Concerning Series Projection
Given that Rasmussen is expecting Sale to dominate the Phillies in Game 1, it’s no surprise that he’s also expecting the Braves to win the series. As he explained, falling behind is going to be too much to overcome.
“Atlanta has played well at Truist Park, ending the year as one of five teams across the league to win 50-plus games at home,” Rasmussen wrote. “With Sale on the mound in Game 1, the Braves will quickly put the Phillies in desperation mode. Sánchez will be on the mound in Game 2, but he’s looked beatable of late, having surrendered two or more runs in each of his last five starts, including a three-run outing against the Braves at the start of September.”
The Phillies are going to be the underdog. That much is clear, but the goal remains to get back to the World Series, and to do that, the Phillies are going to need to be comfortable being the underdog.
Phillies Projected to Have Major Issues Against Chris Sale, Braves