The Buffalo Bills are in a unique spot coming into Week 3 as the only undefeated team in the division. They had an unforgettable win in Week 1, and took the trash out in a divisional game in Week 2 dominating the New York Jets for 60 minutes. They are at a crossroad this week in what could be a massive trap spot with an 0-2 Miami Dolphins team making the trip north.
Vegas is certainly backing the Bills, as they enter the game as 11.5 point favorites. However, for Miami the season is all but over if they drop to 0-3 tonight. Only three times this century have made the playoffs after starting the season winless through three.
This means the Bills will have to be on the top of their game to beat Miami with their back against the walls.
Here are the NFL player prop bets that jump out for the Bills on a short week.
Khalil Shakir Receiving Yards o42.5
The Bills were out of their comfort zone with Khalil Shakir assuming wide receiver one responsibilities in his third season in the league last year after Stefon Diggs left.
After signing Joshua Palmer and watching Keon Coleman explode with eight catches, 112 yards, and a touchdown in the season opener, Shakir can finally settle back into his role as a slot receiver.
He surpassed this number easily in Week 1 with a passing script, hauling in six receptions on nine targets for 64 yards. Last week he only had to make one catch as the Bills went up by 20 almost immediately and stayed there all game.
Excluding the three matchups with the Jets, Shakir is 14-3 to this over since Diggs left.
Last week was Shakir’s lowest total in years and I believe this number is an overreaction to that paired with a running game script.
But as I mentioned, Miami isn’t coming to Buffalo to lose. Miami’s secondary is already immensely beat up and Shakir has hit this line in each of the last three matchups with the Phins.
James Cook Receiving Yards o13.5
This is another line that I am shocked to continually see so low. On one hand, if you wanted to handicap this play it would be on the short rest angle. Team’s do not want to run their running back into the ground early in the season, that’s part of the reason why James Cook’s back up, Ray Davis, has a rushing line of 23.5 this week.
However, the stats simply don’t lie. Cook had 21 carries just four days ago against the Jets. I don’t see them returning to that well on short rest. But Miami is so weak against the running back in the pass game, I believe the coaching staff will look to use that to feed their well payed super star.
In Week 1, Jonathan Taylor had 27 receiving yards. In Week 2, the Patriots hit this number with two separate running backs. Rhamondre Stevenson had a whopping 88 and TreVeyon Henderson had 30.
Cook has hit this in four straight games against Miami and Buffalo has been watching the film. Trust the offensive coordinator to identify the weakness and attack it at home.
If you think this matchup spells blow out, consider the rushing + receiving line which sits around 85.
Joshua Palmer Any Time Touchdown Scorer
A long shot for the people. Joshua Palmer is still searching for his first touchdown with the Bills. He is second on the team in receiving yards, but the only player to play well in both Week 1 and Week 2.
Palmer hauled in five of nine targets against Baltimore, amassing 62 yards on a long of 32. He was good for two of three against New York in the blowout, amassing 47 yards with, again, a long of 32.
He has been a big play guy since arriving in Buffalo and I think he’s in a great spot to get in the end zone tonight at home. His price is +285 on FanDuel and being bet down. Pair it with his longest reception (o18.5) for a spicy +350 play.
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