The Miami Dolphins are in a do or die spot tonight. Coming off a short week and a divisional loss to the New England Patriots, their backs are up against the wall. They have made the long trek North and will take on another divisional foe in the Buffalo Bills in a stadium where they don’t like to lose.
Miami’s season could end tonight as ESPN’s Bill Barnwell let us know.
“Dropping to 0-3? Good luck. Since 2002, just three of the 96 teams that opened the season with three straight losses have (or would have) advanced,” Barnwell writes. “That’s a 3.1% success rate. And though the addition of a 17th game in 2021 gives these teams extra runway to overcome their starts, the reality is that 0-3 usually tells us what we need to know. If you can’t win one of those first three games, you probably don’t have the talent to win nine or 10 of the ensuing 14, either.”
As such, here are the NFL player prop bets that jump out in a back against the wall play calling spot.
De’Von Achane Longest Rush o13.5
The game script for the Miami Dolphins seems to be leaning towards pass. Coming in as 11.5 point underdogs, Vegas expects Miami to be playing catchup and that is baked into De’Von Achane’s rushing lines.
The team has only amassed 139 rushing yards through two games. But that is deceiving, as they had to abandon the run in Week 1 after falling behind by 33. In that same Week 1 matchup, Achane broke one for 29 yards.
His longest rush last week was just nine, but he broke a pass for 29.
He is an explosive player, everyone knows that. While I think his rushing total is playable at 52.5, longest rush seems like the play against a Bills team that is down to just three healthy defensive tackles and was gashed in back to back weeks.
The Bills have given up carries of 49, 30. 17, 12, and 46, and that’s just to running backs.
Limited running back depth and a beat up defense makes me trust an explosive playmaker to break one for medium yardage.
Tua Tagovailoa Passing TDs o1.5
A starting quarterback to throw two touchdown passes is substantially plus money. Need I say more. FanDuel has this prop at +134 for a quarterback they also think will throw the ball more than 35 times.
The Bills safeties are bad, the Dolphins receivers are good. I’m not over thinking this one, this is a number that will rarely be found this high again. Tua Tagovailoa has hit this in six of his last ten, and I’m banking on Mike McDaniel’s play calling to get this home.
Buffalo allowed one last week to Tyrod Taylor on only 11 passing attempts, and two to Baltimore on 19.
Tanner Conner Anytime Touchdown Scorer
A long shot for the people. The Phins are still in tight end hell. Darren Waller won’t play leaving Julian Hill and Tanner Conner to handle tight end responsibilities tonight.
Conner is the only tight end on roster to record a reception this year. He’s got two catches on four targets for 20 yards. Should the Dolphins get deep in the redzone, with an injured offensive line they could turn to hard play action to punch it in. This is when an underutilized and easily forgotten tight end can shine.
He is +750 to score and +5500 to score first. The Bills allowed a touchdown to backup tight end Jeremy Ruckert just last week.
I also think full back Alec Ingold is live for the same reason. Ingold is +2000 ATTD, and +10000 to score first.
TNF Prop Bets: Latest Odds, Best Player Props For Dolphins