The Kansas City Chiefs are entering their most unpredictable season in many years.
The wheels fell off of their dynasty run in 2025, resulting in a 6-11 season. Kansas City underwent a bit of a soft rebuild during the offseason, particularly on defense, but is returning several starters on offense.
Questions also linger over how quarterback Patrick Mahomes will fare coming off a torn ACL and LCL in his left knee. All of these factors have led to wildly different 2026 season predictions from experts around sports media.
Who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy in February? 👀
Kansas City Chiefs Predicted to Win Super Bowl LXI
Even with all the varied predictions, not many are picking the Chiefs to return to Super Bowl glory this quickly. However, Bill Barnwell of ESPN believes Kansas City has a more complete roster than it is getting credit for.
“I’m cautiously optimistic about Mahomes given that he’ll be on the field Week 1, and Andy Reid’s team should have a more complete roster than what it lined up in 2025 after signing Kenneth Walker III and making significant investments along the defensive line. The offensive line should be healthier, although getting Josh Simmons on the field early in the season would be important.”
Barnwell has the Chiefs defeating the Philadelphia Eagles, who they have faced in two different Super Bowls over the past four years, in Super Bowl LXI.
Chiefs Predicted to Lose AFC Championship Game
Another prediction from Matt Verderame of Sports Illustrated has Kansas City making it back to the AFC Championship Game, but falling to the Houston Texans.
“As for the AFC, I could have easily picked six other teams to make it to Super Bowl LXI, but chose the Texans because they have the most dominant unit in football with their defense. That said, if C.J. Stroud doesn’t pick it up after a pair of lackluster seasons, teams like the Bills, Chiefs, Broncos or Patriots could all get there with a chance to win it all.”
With so much unknown currently surrounding the Chiefs, most would probably sign up for Verderame’s prediction. That being said, it would certainly be heartbreaking to see K.C. get so close to getting back to the Super Bowl, but falling just short.
Chiefs Predicted to Lose in Divisional Round
John Breech of CBS Sports thinks the Chiefs will be improved from 2025, but lost too many valuable contributors to make a deep postseason run.
“Yes, the Chiefs are getting Patrick Mahomes back, but they had him for 14 games last year, and they went 6-8. Also, the Chiefs have a huge question mark on defense in the form of a secondary that lost both starting corners (Jaylen Watson and Trent McDuffie) and a starting safety (Bryan Cook) during the offseason.”
Breech has K.C. finishing the regular season 10-7 and making the playoffs as a wild-card. He believes it will get past the Texans in the wild-card round, but fall to the division rival Denver Broncos in the divisional round.
Chiefs Predicted to Miss Playoffs in 2026
Henry McKenna of Fox Sports can’t buy into the Chiefs bouncing back this season, specifically because of the question marks they have on offense.
“There’s just not a lot of buzz around the Chiefs that makes me feel optimistic. The one really positive preseason storyline — rookie receiver Cyrus Allen — has totally died out. The fifth-round pick played deep into the team’s final preseason game, perhaps indicating he’s not as impressive as the hype made him out to be. The team wants more from him. And offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy made it clear that the team needs a whole lot more from WR1 Rashee Rice.”
Like many others, McKenna also went on to express concern over the several starters K.C. lost on defense during the offseason. The Chiefs missing the postseason would be disappointing, but it’s certainly possible if they get a couple of bad breaks go against them.
Chiefs 2026 Predictions: Experts See Wildly Different Outcomes for Kansas City