Chiefs Get Uptick in Playoff Odds; Still Outside Top Tier of AFC

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KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - SEPTEMBER 14: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs celebrates after defeating the Denver Broncos in the game at Arrowhead Stadium on September 14, 2026 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

It didn’t take long for experts to change their tune on the Kansas City Chiefs.

Many believed Kansas City would be in reset mode in 2026 and miss the postseason for a second straight year. However, after their convincing Week 1 win over the Denver Broncos, the Chiefs are being predicted not only to return to the playoffs, but reclaim the AFC West.

Kansas City Chiefs Predicted to Win AFC West After Strong Week 1 Showing

John Breech of CBS Sports changed some things up with his 2026 playoff projections after Week 1. Among them was catapulting the Chiefs from missing the playoffs to winning the AFC West and finishing as the No. 3 seed.

“Before the season started, the Chiefs were kind of a question mark, but that’s not the case anymore after their dominant 31-10 win over the Broncos on Monday night. Our projection model is now feeling confident that the AFC West will go through Kansas City this year.”

Quarterback Patrick Mahomes looked fully healthy in Week 1 as he completed the Chiefs’ opening drive with a 15-yard touchdown run. Running back Kenneth Walker III was dominant, racking up 191 total yards and two touchdowns against a good Broncos defense. Kansas City was also impressive on defense, holding Denver to just 176 total yards.

Chiefs Remain Outside of Top 2 in AFC

Although Breech gave K.C. a big boost, he still had them coming in behind the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens in playoff seeding. The Bills had an impressive Week 1 shootout win over the Houston Texans, and Baltimore soundly defeated the Indianapolis Colts — who the Chiefs will face in Week 2.

Breech went on to project the Chiefs to defeat the Texans in the wild-card round, but had them losing in the divisional round to Buffalo.

“Josh Allen has never beaten the Chiefs in the playoffs, but he finally gets the monkey off his back here.”

Mahomes is 4-0 over Allen and the Bills in the postseason, most recently defeating them in the 2024 AFC Championship Game. It’s very likely the two will meet in the playoffs again one day, but one has to wonder the mental state Allen is in when it comes to his lack of postseason success, particularly against the Chiefs.