Eagles’ Healthy Dose of Bad Football Won’t Matter Much When Playoffs Kick-off

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ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK - DECEMBER 28: Dallas Goedert #88 of the Philadelphia Eagles celebrates with teammates after catching a pass for a touchdown during the first quarter of the game against the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium on December 28, 2025 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images)

Now that the 24 hour rule has expired and we’ve had some time to process what happened Sunday in the Philadelphia Eagles season finale, a 24-17 loss to the Commanders that essentially cost the Birds the #2 seed in NFC playoffs, we can sort through the carnage strewn about Lincoln Financial Field that left the Birds with the #3 seed and a date with the San Francisco 49ers next Sunday, 4:30 pm.

So why does the loss in the finale have Eagles Nation up in arms? Because if the Eagles were the #2 seed they would have been guaranteed two home playoff games and if the top seed Seahawks should somehow get knocked off, then the possibility existed that the Birds could host the NFC title game like they did last year as the #2, following a Commanders thumping of the Lions, last years #1 seed in the NFC.  Hmmmm.  Lets’s break that down to see what the Eagles really lost on Sunday.

First let me say that I’m a big proponent of home field advantage in the NFL playoffs. The Eagles, under Sirianni are 5-0 at home in the post-season and have been to two of the last three Super Bowls as a #1 seed and a #2 seed respectively.  Both Super Bowl runs saw Philly host the NFC title game.

A Healthy Dose of Bad Football

Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni prioritized his team’s health knowing he was guaranteed to be at least successful with his intended goal despite the outcome.  Since Sirianni knows his team much better than we do he probably deserves the benefit of the doubt.  After all, what’s been the biggest issue for his team this year? Hint: the offensive line.  I may not know much but I know some of the same members of that elite offensive line from last year have been battling injuries.  If an extra week off gives Cam Jurgens, Landon Dickerson and Lane Johnson more time to heal to be fresher for the NFL’s second season then it was the right call.  Besides, the Eagles still had a chance to capture the #2 seed if their back-ups could have beaten Washington on Sunday.

The problem is the second component of Sirianni’s risk versus reward experiment failed miserably because back-up quarterback Tanner McKee and the Birds offense failed to capitalize on a number of first half red zone opportunities and it ended up costing them.  The whole game was a mess on both sides but the game was definitely there for the taking.  The Birds were flagged nine times for 123 yards? Heck the starters could have done that.  

Look, there’s a reason back-ups are back-ups and the Eagles showed the world what a cautionary tale looks like when you put your trust in a player or players who aren’t trustworthy.  There’s a reason McKee was a sixth round pick (188) out of Stanford.  It doesn’t mean a sixth round pick can’t turn into a viable NFL quarterback.  (See Tom Brady, 6th Round (199), Michigan 2000).  But let’s face it, the kid was a 3rd string quarterback for this team last year and Sunday was just his second NFL start.

McKee opened a lot of eyes with the way he played for the Birds last season but his team needed him to play well on Sunday and he did not. He finished the day completing  21/40 passes for 241 yards, a touchdown and an interception, a 52% completion rate, a qb rating of 68.9, and seemed to get worse as the game went along.  

His teammates didn’t help much either, especially the secondary who were flagged for four pass interference penalties that totaled 90 yards.  Oh and don’t forget wide out Darius Cooper,  who took it upon himself to get flagged for the dumbest penalty of the year, and that’s saying something with this team.  

With the game tied 7-7 late in the 2nd quarter, the Eagles had just turned the ball over on downs deep in Washington territory.  Five plays later the Birds’ Jalyx Hunt picked off Josh Johnson and gave his team the ball back at the Commanders 22 yard line.  The very next play, McKee hit Cooper down the middle for 17 yards to the Washington five yard line.  But Cooper got up, spun the ball and said something to Washington cornerback Jonathon Jones and got flagged for a 15 yard taunting penalty, an egregious infraction that moved Philly back to the 20 yard line.  Three plays later McKee threw an interception at the one to Jeremy Reaves who returned the ball to the 29 yard line with :48 seconds left in the half.  Five plays later Jake Moody drilled a 56 yard field goal at the 2nd quarter gun to give Washington a 10-7 lead at the half.  So the dumbest of dumb penalties caused a potential 10 point swing in a game that carried some high-end stakes with it.

The bottom line is the Eagles back-ups were, for the most part, were awful on Sunday.  They lost to a quarterback who is playing for his seventh team in 12 seasons and was starting just his second game since 2021.

What Was the Cost?

The loss cost the Birds a guaranteed home game in the second round. But If the Bears lose to the Packers next weekend, the Birds will host the Rams in round two.  After that the Eagles have the same chance of hosting the NFC title game whether the #2 or #3 seed.  But only if the Packers can knock off the Seahaks next weekend.  If the Bears beat the Packers on Sunday the Birds will have to win the following weekend at Soldier Field to advance to the NFC title game and root for Green Bay to win in Seattle.  Keep in mind all of the above scenarios are predicated on the Birds beating the 49ers next Sunday.   So if you are an Eagles fan you probably want to see your Birds go to Chicago next weekend, rather than host the Rams.

If only a mystical oracle existed that could tell us who was going to win games in advance it would help with organizational decisions going forward.  If only we knew the Lions, who unraveled down the stretch, a skid that included a six turnover meltdown on Christmas Day in an embarrassing loss to Max Brosmer and the Vikings, were going to go into Chicago and beat the Bears in the season finale, we wouldn’t be talking or second guessing any of this.  Oh wait, someone did:

  https://heavy.com/sports/nfl/philadelphia-eagles/upon-further-review-all-signs-point-to-eagles-representing-nfc-in-super-bowl-60/

Now the Packers, losers of their last three and without their best player, will take their train wreck into Soldier Field as a 1.5 underdog, that’s right the #7 seed is basically a pick ‘em versus the #2 seed on the road.  

What’s the Difference?

The biggest difference in the #2 and #3 seed is that the Eagles have to play a very dynamic and explosive San Francisco team versus a Packers team that couldn’t get to double digit wins this season.

But the 49ers are banged up too and their defense is their achilles heel and their explosive offense managed just three points against a Seattle team at home in a game for the top seed in the NFC.

So Eagles Nation can lament all they want about possibly losing a home playoff game because the head coach decided to go with rest over rust, but the reality is that the Eagles don’t flinch when they play in hostile environments:

Hard to Figure

The Birds travel well under the current regime.  But so do the 49ers and Seahawks.  The bottom line is the success of Philadelphia’s title defense won’t come down to where they play as much as how they play.  They are certainly hard to figure out.  Since week 10 they have an offense that ranks in the bottom six of the league.  They’re also 10-0 this year when Jalen Hurts is held UNDER 200 yards this season.  In their five losses this year when the starters played the Eagles gave up 25 points per game.  In their 11 wins their defense gave up 16.1 points per game.

There’s No Rush

The Birds do two things very well.  They play elite defense and they protect the football.  Both of those elements are part of the formula for playoff success.  Their biggest issue is that they ranked number 2 last year running the football but dropped to number 17 this year.  Believe it or not, 105 years after the NFL was formed, defense and the run game are still the basis for winning championships.

Sunday’ s game pits the last two NFC champions and San Francisco is 7-2 this year away from home.  They have a top 10 scoring offense but a ground game that ranks 24th despite having an MVP candidate in Christian McCaffrey.  

Jalen Hurts doesn’t blink all that often when the lights get turned up.  He’s 6-2 in the playoffs over the last 4 seasons but neither does Brock Purdy, whose 4-2 over the same span.  As usual, in big games, the winner isn’t the team that makes the biggest plays, it’s usually the team that makes the fewest mistakes.  

Last season the Eagles got stronger and stronger as the season went along starting in week 5 after the bye.  This year they lived by the “survive and advance” mantra.  Can they do that four more times?  We’ll know soon enough.