A group of data scientists, engineers, and designers have put together a map predicting coronavirus progression in states across the United States. The website, called CovidActNow, was designed with input from epidemiologists and health officials, the website notes. Here’s a look at how to use the site to see possible projections in your region.
This particular tool was built to try to understand what might happen in the future and thus help inform politicians who are making decisions. It’s supposed to help estimate how long a region might be impacted, how long a hospital could face extreme pressure from the virus, and how different interventions might affect the virus’s spread.
COVIDActNow notes that the models are intended to help politicians make fast decisions, but they are not intended to predict the future. Projections for each state can be found here. Here are more details on how the map works and how the site was created.
If you click on a state on the U.S. map for COVIDActNow, you’ll see a date for projections of when that state might experience overloaded hospitals if no action is taken versus results if social distancing is enacted versus shelter-in-place for three months or a “Wuhan-style lockdown.” Interestingly, many of the maps seem to project a similar result for a Wuhan-style lockdown versus a statewide shelter-in-place.
Here’s a look at what the map currently shows for Nebraska. It estimates that hospitals would be overloaded with no action by April 11 and with social distancing by April 28. It does not anticipate hospital overload (at least for the next three months) with a statewide shelter-in-place or a Wuhan-style lockdown.
According to the website, a Wuhan-style lockdown would treat everyone as if they were infected, last two months, and require forced home quarantine, shutdowns of all businesses, closed borders, active monitoring, mandatory public-wide testing, and a public aid relief bill.
In contrast, a shelter-in-place would last for three months, shut down non-essential businesses, schools, ban events over 10 people, have a voluntary shelter-in-place, and the like.
It’s worth noting that President Donald Trump has said in a press conference shutdowns or shelter-in-place restrictions won’t last three to four months and he is re-evaluating the situation in 15 days.
The map also notes a significant difference between what would happen with social distancing versus no action versus a three-month shelter-in-place or Wuhan-style lockdown. The most deaths, according to the map’s projection, appear to be avoided with either a Wuhan-style lockdown or a three-month shelter-in-place for the state.
To see projections for your state, visit the website here and click on your state on the U.S. map.
COVIDActNow was endorsed by a number of people, including Nirav Shah, MD; Valerie Nurr’araaluk Davidson (former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Health and Human Services), Tomas Pueyo, MSc; MBA; Vincent Mor, professor of Health Services at Brown University; Ben Goldman-Israelow, MD, PhD (infectious disease fellow at Yale School of Medicine); Leo Nissola, MD (Parker Institute for Cancer Immunotherapy); Joe Nation, PhD (Kennedy-Grossman Fellow in Human Biology); and Dr. Vincent DeGennaro (medical director for Haiti Air Ambulance).
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