The expectations and hype for Odell Beckham Jr.’s first year with the Cleveland Browns are sky-high. His yardage total in Vegas for his maiden voyage in the orange and brown? Not so much.
Caesars released the over-under for Beckham’s receiving yards this season and while it has him getting over the 1,000-yard mark and having a solid season, the total is nowhere near his career high of 1,450 yards.
The current line for Beckham is 1,239.5 yards, which he should eclipse easily if he can stay on the field. Beckham went over that number in each of his first three seasons in the NFL and was on pace to last year if it wasn’t for an injury that forced him to miss four games.
(via @CaesarsPalace)
Last season, 12 players went over the number installed for Beckham, with Julio Jones leading the league with 1,677 yards.
Beckham has been vocal about his eagerness for a fresh start in a Browns uniform and he’s quickly built great chemistry with quarterback Baker Mayfield, who — like OBJ — plays with big-time swagger.
Beckham started training camp with a bang, getting the crowd on their feet with some highlight reel grabs.
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The catches didn’t just impress the Browns fans. They also got the attention of Mayfield.
“He can do things I’ve never seen before,” Mayfield said in a recent Sports Illustrated interview. “The pure talent is unreal. As we grow chemistry together, it can be pretty special. He makes my job easy. I’m happy to be able to be at camp with him and get better every day.”
Here are some reasons to be comfortable in betting the over on Odell Beckham Jr.
Breaking Down Odell Beckham’s Numbers
During his five seasons with the Giants, Beckham hauled in 390 passes for 5,476 yards and 44 touchdowns in 59 games. He averaged 92.8 yards per game in New York and made the Pro Bowl three times.
OBJ told ESPN’s Josina Anderson that he wants to reach 100 receptions, 2,000 yards and 20 touchdowns this season with the Browns. Beckham has also said that he wants to catch Jerry Rice on the all-time receiving yards list when his career is wrapped up.
While those are lofty goals, there’s reason to believe Beckham could be in for a career-year in Cleveland.
Beckham was vocal with his frustrations that the Giants and Eli Manning didn’t go downfield enough during his time in New York, limiting his potential. It would appear that with the Browns, he’ll have plenty of opportunity to stretch the field.
Last year, Browns offensive coordinator Todd Monken was calling plays for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, leading the league’s No. 1 passing attack. NumberFire pointed out that Monken’s offense also led the NFL in percentage of pass attempts traveling 15 or more yards downfield (27.0 percent).
Despite Monken’s presence, head coach Freddie Kitchens will be calling the plays. However, that shouldn’t affect the downfield mentality, as the Browns at 26.8 percent were a close second in that category.
With Kitchens calling plays for the second half of last season, Mayfield was one of the hottest quarterbacks in the league with 19 touchdowns, eight interceptions and a 106.2 rating. He went on to break the rookie record for passing touchdowns.
Another plus for Beckham is that he’ll see more single coverage than he has in his entire career playing with his buddy and fellow Pro Bowler Jarvis Landry, talented tight end David Njoku and the collection of other talent on the Browns offense.
There’s also the fact that Nick Chubb is the only proven running back currently on the Browns’ roster for the first half of the season as Kareem Hunt serves a suspension. This could lead to Cleveland relying more on the passing game early on in an effort to keep Chubb’s workload under control.
Don’t be Worried by Beckham’s Injury History
If there’s a risk with betting on Beckham, it’s that he has been banged up the last two seasons, missing a combined 16 games. Beckham suffered a fractured ankle two seasons ago that required surgery and a quad injury last season that Josina Anderson recently revealed was a tear, not a bruise.
However, Beckham has appeared 100 percent so far at camp and the team has taken a very relaxed approach in getting him ready for the season. He did not play in the Browns preseason opener against the Redskins and will likely play just sparingly the rest of the preseason.
The Browns open their season on Sept. 8 against the Tennessee Titans.
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Bettors Should Slam the Over on Odell Beckham’s Season Yardage Total