Chicago Cubs Playoff Scenarios: Can They Still Miss the Postseason?

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The Chicago Cubs remain in the postseason picture, but their playoff fate leaves an important question: Can they still miss out?

The Chicago Cubs remain in the postseason picture, but their playoff fate leaves an important question: Can they still miss out?

Here’s a breakdown of the Cubs’ playoff scenarios, including what Chicago needs to clinch and what could leave them outside the postseason.

The Cubs can clinch a 2026 playoff berth Thursday with a win over the Miami Marlins or an Arizona Diamondbacks loss at Colorado.

Two straight losses to Miami have left Chicago at 87-71, tied with the Philadelphia Phillies for the second wild card, with four games remaining and the San Diego Padres one game up on the Cubs and Phillies in the National League wild-card standings.

Chicago Cubs Clinching Scenarios and Seeding

Chicago owns the season-series tiebreaker over Arizona, which is why one Cubs win or Diamondbacks loss gets the job done for Chicago. Some trackers may still list a Cubs magic number of 2, as tracked by Chicago Sports Wire, because that formula ignores the tiebreaker.

The Cubs went 5-1 against San Diego, 6-1 against Philadelphia and 4-2 against Arizona, according to Just Baseball‘s tracker. Philadelphia swept San Diego 6-0. In a three-way tie among the Cubs, Padres and Phillies, Chicago would take the No. 4 seed and host a Wild Card Series.

Milwaukee and Los Angeles have clinched the top two National League seeds and first-round byes. Atlanta has clinched the No. 3 seed. The higher seed hosts all three games of the best-of-three Wild Card Series, as laid out by MLB.com.

Winning all of their remaining four games would give the Cubs a strong chance at the No. 4 seed and home games at Wrigley Field, per an analysis by Bleed Cubbie Blue.

Chicago Cubs Possible Wild Card Series Opponent

If the season ended before any games today, the Cubs would be the No. 5 seed and travel to face No. 4 San Diego. Philadelphia would visit Atlanta in the other series.

A Chicago finish at No. 4 would flip the matchup to Wrigley Field against the Padres or Phillies. A slide to No. 6 would send the Cubs to Atlanta. The Wild Card Series winners advance to face the division winners, with the Padres-Cubs winner meeting top-seeded Milwaukee.

The seeding will continue to shift over the remaining games. Chicago plays a doubleheader at Boston on Friday, with games at 1:05 p.m. and 6:05 p.m. ET, after MLB moved up Sunday’s game because of a major storm forecast to deluge New England, according to the Chicago Tribune. Saturday’s 7:15 p.m. ET game remains on the schedule, though weather could change that one as well.

First pitch Thursday at Wrigley Field arrives at 1:20 p.m. CT, 2:20 p.m. ET, with Matthew Boyd set to start against Tyler Phillips. Arizona, 84-74 and three games back, opens at Colorado at 1:10 p.m. MT, 3:10 p.m. ET. Pete Crow-Armstrong, at 45 home runs and 39 steals, needs one steal to join the 40-40 club.

A postseason berth would send the Cubs to October in back-to-back years after a four-year drought. Chicago last reached the postseason in 2020, missed the field from 2021 through 2024, then returned in 2025 as a wild card at 92-70. The Cubs beat the Padres in the Wild Card Series and lost to Milwaukee in the NLDS.

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