An expert on MLB salary arbitration projects the Red Sox Jarren Duran to walk away with a salary of $11.1 million in 2027, and according to at least one commentator, that figure will push Boston Red Sox to make a tough decision on the five-year veteran before the Nov. 20 deadline.
That figure for 2027 comes after a career-worst season and sits atop a class of 17 arbitration-eligible players, the most in baseball, according to MLB Trade Rumors‘ arbitration analyst Matt Swartz.
Duran earned $7.7 million in 2026 after Boston declined an $8 million club option and the sides avoided a hearing, according to Spotrac. The sports business site puts its own 2027 estimate for Duran at $10.5 million, close to the MLB Trade Rumors number. The 30-year-old batted .207 with a .266 on-base percentage, 20 home runs, 69 RBI and 21 stolen bases in 151 games. He struck out a team-high 165 times, a rate of once every 3.7 trips to the plate.
That output produced a 76 OPS+ and 0.4 wins above replacement, a steep fall from 2024, when he posted 9.0 WAR, won All-Star Game MVP and finished eighth in AL MVP voting.
| BOSTON RED SOX — PROJECTED 2027 ARBITRATION SALARIES (17 PLAYERS) | ||
|---|---|---|
| Player | Service Time | Projected Salary |
| Tanner Houck | 5.100 | $4.1MM |
| Johan Oviedo | 5.079 | $1.8MM |
| Adley Rutschman | 5.000 | $9.1MM |
| Jarren Duran | 4.155 | $11.1MM |
| Eli White | 4.140 | $1.4MM |
| Kutter Crawford | 4.136 | $2.8MM |
| Connor Wong | 4.079 | $2MM |
| Romy González | 4.044 | $1.8MM |
| Triston Casas | 4.032 | $1.7MM |
| Andruw Monasterio | 3.099 | $1.6MM |
| Zack Kelly | 3.080 | $800K |
| Greg Weissert | 3.079 | $1.2MM |
| Wilyer Abreu | 3.041 | $4.6MM |
| Erik Miller | 3.000 | $1.5MM |
| Justin Slaten | 3.000 | $1.2MM |
| Jahmai Jones | 2.148 | $900K |
| Tyron Guerrero | 2.133 | $1.1MM |
| Source: MLB Trade Rumors, “Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2027” — mlbtraderumors.com | ||
Jarren Duran Non-Tender Question for Boston Red Sox
“$11.1M for Duran. Been in trade rumors for years but the non-tender conversation is gonna be had too. That said if he hits FA I feel like that’s around what he’d get from a team chasing the upside,” Play Tessie host Nat Gordon wrote in a post on X Friday.
Gordon framed it as a topic for discussion, not a prediction, and his caveat undercuts the case: if free agency would pay Duran about the same for his upside, a non-tender hands that value away for nothing.
“This is going to be a doozy of a non-tender deadline for the Red Sox, who have multiple calls to make,” Chris Cotillo of MassLive wrote Friday.
A non-tender would save the cash and return nothing, according to Sports Illustrated, which sees $11.1 million as tough to defend after two straight down years and as a potential obstacle in trade talks.
Boston Red Sox Trade Market and Non-Tender List
Boston kept Duran through trade talks before 2025, at the 2025 deadline, before 2026 and at the 2026 deadline.
Duran is the Red Sox player most likely to be traded this offseason, according to Sports Illustrated‘s Jackson Roberts.
Duran ranks fourth on the outfield depth chart behind Roman Anthony, Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu, and his trade value “took a nosedive,” ESPN‘s David Schoenfield wrote. Schoenfield still expects a taker, citing two years of remaining control. Duran becomes arbitration-eligible again in 2028 and reaches free agency in 2029.
A trade before Nov. 20 would return assets and hand another club the tender decision, while a non-tender returns nothing. The $11.1 million projection raises the price of keeping Duran while trimming his trade value.
Adley Rutschman is projected at $9.1 million, Wilyer Abreu at $4.6 million and Tanner Houck at $4.1 million, according to MLB Trade Rumors.
The back end of the class holds the harder choices, with Connor Wong at $2 million, Romy González at $1.8 million, Andruw Monasterio at $1.6 million and Eli White at $1.4 million. Kutter Crawford, projected at $2.8 million, appears among six possible 2027 offseason departures.
Duran’s $11.1 million projection is the largest figure on Boston’s list.
Red Sox Tabbed to Cut Ties With Jarren Duran After $11 Million Projection