LeBron James’ tenure with the Los Angeles Lakers has officially come to an end, and the betting market wasted little time identifying a favorite for his next destination.
James will become a free agent at 6 p.m. ET on Tuesday after his agent, Rich Paul, confirmed to ESPN that the four-time NBA champion intends to sign with another team, CBS reports. Paul also told ESPN that James plans to return for his 24th NBA season, extending his record as the league’s longest-tenured player.
Within minutes of the announcement, prediction market Kalshi listed the Golden State Warriors as the overwhelming favorite to land James. As of approximately 12:20 p.m. ET, Golden State carried a 68% chance of signing the future Hall of Famer, adding even more intrigue to an offseason that has already linked James to Stephen Curry and Draymond Green.
According to recent reports, the Warriors are also pursuing Anthony Davis in a trade, potentially setting the stage for a reunion between James and his former Lakers teammate alongside Golden State’s veteran core.
Rich Paul Made LeBron James’ Priorities Clear
Although James spent the past eight seasons with the Lakers, signs of uncertainty surfaced long before Tuesday’s decision.
After exercising his player option last offseason, Paul made it clear that James remained focused on competing for championships, even as the Lakers shifted toward a younger foundation.
“LeBron wants to compete for a championship,” Paul told ESPN. “He knows the Lakers are building for the future. He understands that, but he values a realistic chance of winning it all. We are very appreciative of the partnership that we’ve had for eight years with Jeanie (Buss) and Rob (Pelinka) and consider the Lakers as a critical part of his career.”
That statement came after the Lakers acquired Luka Doncic at the 2025 trade deadline, a move that significantly altered the franchise’s direction. Doncic quickly became a centerpiece alongside Austin Reaves, leaving James in an unfamiliar role as the team’s third offensive option after returning from sciatica earlier in the season.
Despite the adjustment, James remained productive. The Lakers caught fire during March, posting a 15-2 record while James, Doncic and Reaves developed chemistry. Injuries ultimately derailed that momentum, however. Doncic missed the postseason, while Reaves also dealt with injuries during the playoffs.
James helped lead Los Angeles past the Houston Rockets in the opening round before the Lakers fell to the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference semifinals.
Warriors Continue to Loom as Favorite
James now enters one of the most unusual free agencies of his career.
Last summer, Paul told ESPN’s Shams Charania that James would closely evaluate whether the Lakers could build a legitimate championship contender. While many viewed those comments as pressure on the organization, James ultimately remained in Los Angeles because the market for a 40-year-old superstar earning near-maximum money proved limited.
This offseason presents a different scenario.
James enters free agency after averaging 20.9 points, 6.1 rebounds and 7.2 assists during the regular season while showing he could still perform at a high level on a playoff team, per Bleacher Report. His first-round performance against Houston reminded many that he remains capable of elevating his play when the stakes rise.
Now, with the Lakers chapter officially over and Kalshi installing Golden State as the clear betting favorite, attention turns to whether the Warriors can assemble the roster James has reportedly prioritized. If Golden State can also acquire Davis, one of the NBA’s biggest offseason storylines could become reality.
LeBron James’ Warriors Odds Climb After Lakers Exit Decision