We got back on track last week with a 3-2 finish. Things continue to become clearer in college football as we are towards the end of the season. This week, we lean heavy on the Big Ten with some great value and sprinkle in a couple non-power five matchups for good measure. We list our picks in order of least to greatest confidence level with the number one pick as our lock of the week. Click the arrow on the right hand side to see our five winners for this week.
No. 5 Michigan -4 Against Penn State
Records: Michigan 8-2, Penn State 7-3
Last Game: Michigan won 48-41 over Indiana, Penn State had a bye (lost 23-21 to Northwestern in Week 10)
Why Michigan Covers: Michigan survived a scare against Indiana while Penn State is coming off a bye. Expect Jim Harbaugh's team to take out their frustration on Penn State. Michigan is the better team and by a significant margin. The Wolverines are ranked 6th in the F+ Ratings, while the Nittany Lions find themselves at 36th. Look for Michigan to win comfortably in this one.
No. 4 Air Force + 12 Against Boise State
Records: Air Force 7-3, Boise State 7-3
Last Game: Air Force won 35-28 over Utah State, Boise State lost 31-24 to New Mexico
Take the Points: This is a battle for the Mountain division in the Mountain West. Boise State looked vulnerable against New Mexico, and Air Force is coming off a big win over Utah State. The Air Force offense is difficult for defenses to defend. This game is closer to a pick 'em than Vegas expects. Take the points in what should be a hard fought game for the division.
No. 3 Texas A&M -7 Against Vanderbilt
Records: Texas A&M 7-3, Vanderbilt 4-6
Last Game: Texas A&M won 41-17 over Western Carolina, Vanderbilt won 21-17 over Kentucky
Why Texas A&M Covers: The Aggies have proved they are not the class of the SEC which is okay. That does not make them a bad football team. While Vanderbilt has a great defense, they are still not a good team. They rank in the bottom half of the F+ Ratings. Take Texas A&M to cover as they roll Vanderbilt.
No. 2 Michigan State +13.5 Against Ohio State
Records: Michigan State 9-1, Ohio State 10-0
Last Game: Michigan State won 24-7 over Maryland, Ohio State won 28-3 over Illinois
Take the Points: Ohio State has yet to be tested this season largely due to a weak schedule. Michigan State will be the first battle the Buckeyes will find themselves in, and Michigan State at least has had some difficult games. Ohio State should win outright, but not by the double digit amount Vegas expects. Expect Sparty to put up a fight and take the points in this one.
No. 1 Memphis -1.5 Against Temple
Records: Memphis 8-2, Temple 8-2
Last Game: Memphis lost 35-34 to Houston, Temple lost 44-23 to USF
Why Memphis Covers: Both AAC teams are coming off losses. Memphis still found itself in the Top 25, and Temple is starting to show the Notre Dame game was an outlier. Memphis is the better team despite coming of a difficult loss to Houston. Look for quarterback Paxton Lynch to lead the Tigers to victory and cover the spread.
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