The Denver Broncos almost certainly feel totally justified in their decision to select quarterback Bo Nix with the 12th overall pick of the 2024 draft. However, two years later–ahead of his extension eligibility in 2027–significant outside questions remain.
Nix has won more than all but three other quarterbacks, rookie or otherwise, since entering the league.
Still, his production amid those victories has him under the microscope with a word of caution.
Broncos Get Bo Nix Warning Message
GettyThe Denver Broncos need more from Bo Nix this coming season.
In his annual “trade tiers” article, ESPN’s Bill Barnwell listed Nix as being worth “one first-round pick and more.” However, Barnwell’s assessment of Nix included a bit of a warning as Broncos head coach Sean Payton and general manager George Paton plan for the QB’s future.
Barnwell wrote that “Nix was a difficult quarterback to triangulate.”
Barnwell noted Nix’s age. He is four months younger than Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence was the No. 1 overall pick of the 2021 draft.
“He has been roughly a league-average quarterback over his first two years, ranking 18th and then 15th in QBR. Nix generates real value by avoiding sacks, keeping turnovers relatively low and using his legs to generate first downs, but he also struggles with his accuracy and consistency,” Barnwell wrote on July 16.
“I’m not sure teams would be as thrilled about Nix without Payton designing the offense, and Nix might be the sort of quarterback who provides real value on a rookie contract before sapping a team on a more expensive deal. But if he can take a step forward and connect on downfield throws more often with [Jaylen] Waddle in the fold, Nix will be a much more valuable player in 2027 and beyond.”
Barnwell noted that Nix has Payton and one of the best offensive lines. However, he has been light at wide receiver. That was before the Broncos acquired Waddle to pair with incumbent and two-time Pro Bowler Courtland Sutton.
But the Broncos have also lacked a consistent running game.
J.K. Dobbins returns to lead a group that added Jonah Coleman in the fourth round of the draft, but the Broncos’ fate still largely relies on Nix taking another step in his development.
Notably, Nix turned down the opportunity to attend the Pro Bowl following his rookie season. He was selected as a fourth alternate. It is fair to wonder if having that label attached to his resume would help perceptions.
Bo Nix Gets Vote of Confidence
GettyBo Nix does what matters most for the Denver Broncos.
9News’ Mike Klis wrote that “It’s not easy quantifying Bo,” adding, “Stats don’t do it” amid Nix’s ranking low in various. And that was before Barnwell weighed in with his take on the former Oregon Ducks star.
Klis wondered what others are “missing” about the Broncos’ QB.
“It’s true the high number of college-like screen passes called by head coach Sean Payton makes Bo seem, as NFL analyst Greg Cosell put it, a ball distributor more than a passer. Nix is nowhere near the precision passer of a Drew Brees or Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers or Dan Marino in their primes,” Klis wrote on July 16.
“But as for his arm, kind of like Tim Tebow in his magical season of 2011, Nix does become a very good passer in the clutch.”
Klis noted Nix’s 17:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 102.4 passer rating when the Broncos trailed last season. He also noted that the latter mark bested that of Los Angeles Chargers star passer Justin Herbert.
However, Klis noted Nix had 8 TDs, 9 INTs, and a 76.3 passer rating when tied or ahead.
“It’s become a cliché to say Nix is best graded through his won-loss record. But it’s also true,” Klis wrote. “He was 15-3 last year counting his playoff win against the Bills and his 24-10 regular-season record the past two seasons is better than all but Sam Darnold (28-6), Josh Allen (25-9) and Jalen Hurts (23-8).”
Klis noted Nix’s comments about the bottom line being to get the win, and the Broncos’ QB has certainly done that. That is despite the negative sentiments that seem so prevalent.
Broncos Cautioned Over Bo Nix Before Training Camp