The Pittsburgh Pirates finished above .500 for just the fifth time since 1993. The 2026 season was a respectable one for the franchise. However, an 82-80 record was not good enough to make the postseason. One could argue that Paul Skenes’ uncharacteristic campaign contributed to the team’s disappointing positioning.
The 2025 NL Cy Young posted a record of 10-11 and 3.82 ERA. It was by far his worst year as a professional. It will be an offseason of figuring out how to get back to the top for the pitcher. He is certainly capable of doing so.
Skenes may have done more than just hurt the Pirates in 2026. He is eligible for first-year arbitration because of his service time and 2024 NL Rookie of the Year award. He has been making the league minimum from a salary standpoint.
Pittsburgh will now have to pay up, but the down year could affect what the final number is going to be. Still, the end result might be favorable for Skenes. He has the opportunity to break the record for first-year arbitration for a pitcher.
Pirates Set To Open The Checkbook For Skenes In Historic Fashion
The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette‘s Colin Beazley dove into this in a recent piece. A lot of eyes are going to be on this situation.
“This is an arbitration hearing the entire league will be watching. Skenes, after being paid essentially the league minimum for his first three seasons, is set up to start earning significant money,” Beazley wrote. “However, in his first season of arbitration, he will still be on a team-friendly salary.”
Additionally, the previously-set record by Dallas Keuchel a decade ago could be updated once Skenes’ situation is resolved.
“Skenes will undoubtedly be tendered a contract,” Beazley noted. “The only question is whether Skenes breaks the first-year pitcher arbitration Dallas Keuchel set at $7.25 million in 2016. Even after a down year, it seems likely that Skenes will.”
Interestingly, despite Skenes’ average season, Beazley’s projection still suggests he will break Keuchel’s record.
Pittsburgh Is Still Facing A Long-Term Issue With Skenes
One day, the Pirates are going to be faced with either paying Skenes an egregious amount of money, or trading him away. Based on how Pittsburgh has done business in the past, the odds of the former number one overall pick staying long-term are rather minimal. That is, if the newly-negotiated Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) lacks a salary cap.
Despite his struggles in 2026, Skenes remains one of MLB’s most highly-regarded pitchers. The only thing that the Pirates could do that would upset the fan base would be to low-ball the pitcher by a small amount of money.
The team will very easily be able to make Skenes happy and break the Keuchel record from the 2016 offseason. Both sides should be able to reach an agreement relatively quickly.
Pirates’ Paul Skenes Now Set To Make MLB Arbitration History