No. 6 Iowa State heads to No. 2 Arizona on Monday, March 2, and the most common Iowa State vs Arizona predictions theme is pretty clear: Arizona is favored at home, and the total is where opinions split. Tipoff is set for 9 p.m. ET at McKale Center in Tucson.
UPDATE, 8:57 p.m. ET: ESPN reported that the new tipoff time for Arizona-Iowa State is 9:07 p.m. ET.
Three Major Predictions:
- ESPN BPI (win probability): Arizona 73.1%
ESPN’s BPI projection gives Arizona a 73.1% chance to win. - KenPom (win probability via Arizona Desert Swarm): Arizona 78%
KenPom’s game forecast (as cited by Arizona Desert Swarm) has Arizona at a 78% win probability. - CBS Sports/SportsLine (total): Model leans OVER 149.5
CBS Sports’ game preview notes the SportsLine projection model is “going Over” 149.5 and projects 153 combined points.
What the betting market is saying:
Across major books, Arizona is sitting around a -7.5 favorite, with the total generally landing in the high 147s to 149.5 range depending on the shop.
How we’d summarize the consensus:
- Winner: Predictive systems are tilting Arizona (BPI and KenPom both land strongly on the Wildcats).
- Total: This is the debate, SportsLine’s model likes the Over, while at least one betting preview angle (OddsShark) is playing it Under 149.5.
How to watch Iowa State vs. Arizona: TV channel, start time, streaming
Date: Monday, March 2, 2026
Start time: 9:07 p.m. ET
TV channel: ESPN
Streaming: ESPN streaming via ESPN platforms; Fubo is also listed as a streaming option in CBS’ game info.
Team records, leading scorers, and what’s at stake right now
Records entering Monday:
- Iowa State: 24-5 (11-5 Big 12)
- Arizona: 27-2 (14-2 Big 12)
Leading scorers (points per game):
- Iowa State: Milan Momcilovic — 17.4 PPG
- Arizona: Brayden Burries — 15.7 PPG
Bracket/seed temperature check:
- ESPN’s Joe Lunardi wrote Monday that Arizona is “locked on the top line,” while Iowa State could move back to a 2-seed with a win.
- CBS Sports’ Bracketology top seeds list includes Arizona as a No. 1 seed and Iowa State as a No. 3 seed in its conference/seed rundown.
Arizona Schedule, Iowa State Schedule
That’s part of the “why today”: with one week left in the regular season and conference tournaments right behind it, this is a resume/seed-shaper in real time.
After Monday night in Tucson, both teams have one more regular-season game before postseason play ramps up. Iowa State’s finale is Saturday, March 7 at Hilton Coliseum in Ames vs. Arizona State (listed for 1:00 p.m. CT on Big 12/ASU event listings). Arizona closes the regular season Saturday, March 7 at Colorado in Boulder, with ESPN’s game page listing 8:00 p.m. local and ESPN2.
Then it’s straight into the 2026 Phillips 66 Big 12 Men’s Basketball Tournament, which runs March 10-14 at T-Mobile Center in Kansas City. The format is designed to reward the top of the league: all 16 teams participate, but the top four seeds get double-byes into the quarterfinals, while seeds 5-8 get a first-round bye. That’s why a result like Iowa State-Arizona matters right now,it can swing which teams are playing extra games (and extra minutes) before the semifinals and title path even begins.
That’s part of the “why today”: with one week left in the regular season and conference tournaments right behind it, this is a resume/seed-shaper in real time.
What happens next?
- If Arizona wins, the Wildcats strengthen their top-line seed case heading into Champ Week.
- If Iowa State wins, it’s a clean “move-the-needle” road result with 2-seed implications per Lunardi.
No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 6 Iowa State: How To Watch on ESPN