The Maple Leafs aren’t exactly being given much credit to make the playoffs.
BetOnline Sports & Casino has Toronto at +100 to make the postseason and -130 to miss it, implying a 43.48 percent chance that the Maple Leafs will qualify.
That’s a pretty clear indication of how the market currently views this team.
And yet, there are plenty of reasons to believe those odds are missing something.
Toronto isn’t bringing back exactly the same team that failed to get past the second round last season.
There are significant changes throughout the roster.
And perhaps the biggest difference is that Auston Matthews is entering the season healthy.
Maple Leafs Have Too Many New Variables to Be Written Off
The easiest way to understand the skepticism surrounding Toronto is to look at last season.
The Maple Leafs finished 34-36-12 and missed the playoffs, ending a streak of nine consecutive postseason appearances. That is obviously going to influence how the betting market views them.
But it also ignores what happened during the offseason.
Toronto added Sergei Bobrovsky, Darren Raddysh and Jack Roslovic while also winning the draft lottery and selecting Gavin McKenna first overall.
Bobrovsky might be the biggest change of all.
The two-time Vezina Trophy winner and two-time Stanley Cup champion gives Toronto something it desperately needed: a goaltender with an extensive track record of performing on the biggest stage. He stopped 10 of 11 shots in his preseason debut, and Matthews has already described having him behind the team as an “absolute treat.”
That doesn’t guarantee anything.
But it changes the equation.
Toronto doesn’t need Bobrovsky to become the best goalie in the NHL. It needs him to give the team a reliable veteran presence in a position that has been a source of uncertainty.
Then there’s Matthews.
He is reportedly 100 percent healthy after undergoing surgery for the MCL injury that ended his 2025-26 season. He also enters the season energized by the changes made around him.
That’s important because Toronto simply didn’t get enough from its captain last season.
If Matthews returns to something resembling his normal level, the Maple Leafs suddenly have a much different offensive foundation.
And then there is the wild card.
Gavin McKenna Could Change the Entire Feel of the Team
McKenna isn’t going to carry the Maple Leafs.
That’s not what Toronto needs from him.
What the first overall pick can do, however, is energize an organization that desperately needed something new.
There is already evidence that he’s having that effect.
McKenna opened training camp alongside John Tavares and William Nylander, and head coach Jim Hiller has repeatedly talked about how comfortable the 18-year-old has looked. Nylander called his arrival a “game-changer,” while Matthews has praised his confidence and skill.
That matters beyond the rookie’s individual production.
Now, imagine being Matthews and knowing there is another elite offensive talent joining the lineup.
Imagine being Nylander and suddenly having a creative playmaker who can find him through traffic.
Imagine being Tavares and getting the chance to mentor the No. 1 pick while still playing a significant offensive role.
McKenna can inject some life into the entire group.
He doesn’t need to score 40 goals.
He doesn’t even need to be one of Toronto’s best players.
If he can make plays, create chances and give the Maple Leafs another dangerous offensive threat, the ripple effect could be significant.
And the preseason has already provided some encouragement. McKenna picked up his first exhibition point Wednesday, assisting on a Tavares goal during Toronto’s 6-1 win over Ottawa. Matthews also scored, while Matthews, Tavares and Roslovic each finished with three points.
That’s obviously preseason.
But it is also a glimpse of what makes this team different.
The Maple Leafs have more than just a new prospect.
They have a healthy Matthews, a proven championship goaltender, new pieces throughout the lineup and an 18-year-old first overall pick who has already injected excitement into the organization.
That’s a lot of variables for a market that is essentially saying Toronto is more likely to miss the playoffs than make them.
Maybe the Maple Leafs don’t win the Atlantic.
Maybe they don’t suddenly become a Stanley Cup favorite.
But getting back into the postseason is a much lower bar.
And if Matthews stays healthy, Bobrovsky gives them the stability they have been missing and McKenna becomes the spark everyone hopes he can be, Toronto could get there.
After that, the first-round narrative changes, too.
The Maple Leafs don’t need to prove they can dominate the regular season.
They need to get another chance.
This time, they may have a very different team waiting for them when the playoffs arrive.
Maple Leafs Playoff Odds Suggest Team Is Underrated