With their 5-4 victory over the San Diego Padres on Sunday evening, the Tampa Bay Rays secured their first winning season since 2023. Their 82nd victory guaranteed a positive win column after two relatively down seasons, saw their winning streak extend to four games, and sees them increasingly well positioned to receive one of the league’s two first-round postseason byes. They extended their lead in both the American League East and the American League overall to 4.5 games over the New York Yankees, and squeaked half a game ahead of the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers for the second-best overall record in baseball.
The Rays are, clearly, among the best in the game. And in a weakened American League – where the trio of the Rays, Yankees and resurgent Boston Red Sox have only the upstart Chicago White Sox keeping pace with them – they look well positioned to make it back to the World Series for the first time since 2020. Since their first winning season in 2008, the Rays have repeatedly built contenders without the payroll available to most of their rivals – yet despite Series appearances in both then and in 2008, they have still never won a championship.
This year, though, might represent their best opportunity yet. And their trade deadline activity suggests that they might think so, too.
Rays Can And Will Hit
While they kept one eye on spinning the plates of the future, in typical Rays fashion, the team also added short-term gains in a way rarely see. They traded non-premium prospects for a starting pitcher in Freddy Peralta, a quality reliever in Tyler Wells, and fixing the biggest hole in the line-up with catcher Liam Hicks. Peralta had struggled to a 4.99 ERA with the New York Mets, but he was only a year removed from a top-five finish in National League Cy Young voting. Hicks was batting .282/.363/.432 at the time of the deal and provided another high-contact bat for a lineup that already had MLB’s lowest strikeout rate. And Wells arrived from Baltimore to reinforce the bullpen, bringing a 2.67 ERA with him. All of them are helping immediately.
There were already reasons to believe this team is better equipped for October than some of its predecessors. And Junior Caminero is the most obvious. The 23-year-old has developed into the middle-of-the-order superstar Tampa Bay has rarely possessed. His home run against San Diego on Sunday was his 37th of the season, tying him for the American League lead, and he has been far more than a one-dimensional power hitter, massively improving his swing decisions this season. The 2020 Rays team had a decent line-up, but it did not have the consistent excellence offered by Caminero, Yandy Díaz (currently hitting .301/.370/.459) and Jonathan Aranda (a .363 OBP) – nor did it have anyone singularly fearsome as Junior.
Chandler Simpson provides something completely different. He entered the final weekend of August batting .308 and had stolen 35 bases – he has no home runs, and is not going to get one without some inside-the-park luck, but his speed and ability to put the ball in play and endless infield hits (even with third baseman standing within whisker distance) create precisely the sort of awkward situations that can matter in close postseason games. At a time when most teams are still pursuing some form of Three True Outcomes baseball, the Rays lead the whole of baseball in batting average, while having by far the fewest strikeouts. Had they either Brandon Lowe or Curtis Mead at second base, and were breakout All-Star Tristan Peters still in the outfield, theirs would be a top-five hitting line-up.
More importantly than the line-up, though, here is enough pitching to support the offence. Indeed, the pitching staff is excellent.
Pitching Depth Keeps Going
At the top of it, the ridiculously consistent pairing of Drew Rasmussen and Nick Martinez are relentless around the strike zone. Rasmussen has gone 14-5 with a 2.95 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 143 strikeouts in 140⅓ innings. while Martinez is 13-4 with a 2.93 ERA and only 22 walks in 147⅔ innings. Between them, the Rays have two starters capable of taking the ball at the front of a postseason rotation and keeping games manageable – and this is before counting Shane McClanahan, who is not back to his apex best after two years away but who seems to be as hard to hit as ever.
One of their many Orioles acquisitions, Bryan Baker, is thriving in his first career stint as a closer, while Wells, the unconventional Kevin Kelly, the returning Manual Rodriguez and the out-of-nowhere explosion of Cam Booser are a strong core to get to that point. Ryan Pepiot is not coming back in time, but Griffin Jax will, and Edwin Uceta might. If Peralta and Garrett Cleavinger can get back to their best, the playoff pitching staff should be a fearsome one.
Baseball-Reference’s latest simulations give the Rays a greater than 99.9% chance of reaching the postseason and a 78% chance of winning the AL East. More significantly, they give Tampa Bay a 49.9% chance of reaching the ALCS, a 22.4% chance of winning the pennant and a 9.8% chance of winning the World Series. A roughly one-in-ten championship probability might not sound enormous, but in a postseason tournament containing 12 teams, it is.
The Rays have spent most of their second era attempting to create enough depth and efficiency to compete with richer teams, having to operate on multiple timelines concurrently. The formula has produced two American League pennants, but never the final four victories. This time, though, they have Caminero’s power, Simpson’s speed, multiple .360-plus OBP hitters, Rasmussen and Martinez at the front of the rotation, Baker at the back of the bullpen and a front office that strengthened an already first-place roster rather than standing still. The Rays spent nearly two decades proving that they can build a contender; this time, have they finally built a champion?
Could the Rays Actually Win it All This Time?