ESPN dropped its mid-season report, and the Jacksonville Jaguars came out nearly on top of the board.
Ranked No. 4 on their FPI, the Jaguars have been an underrated but seriously dangerous playoff contender this season. However, ESPN metrics crushed the myth of them being underrated, giving them a 98.8% probability of making it to the playoffs.
That’s even more than the Seahawks(47.2%), the Chiefs (95.9%), the Broncos (96.6%), the Bears(90.4%), and most other teams.
ESPN Ranks Jaguars Playoff Probability Higher Than Chiefs, Seahawks
Only three teams ranked above them have a higher probability of making it to the playoffs. Bengals at No. 3, the Bills at No. 2, and the 49ers at No. 1.
“The Jaguars are beating teams at a historic pace. They have four victories by 23 or more points, which is the most in a single season in franchise history. They’re also the fifth team since 1999 with four victories by 23 or more points in the first eight games of the season — three of the previous four teams that did that reached the Super Bowl, per ESPN Research.” ESPN’s Michael DiRocco wrote about the Jaguars’ first half.
However, there was one big liability, their pass-rush, that DiRocco warned the Jags about.
“The Jaguars must keep the pass rush from being a liability. They are seventh in pressure rate but have only 16 sacks — just four ahead of last-place Miami. Edge rushers Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker only have a combined five sacks. That’s not going to be good enough against Caleb Williams, Aaron Rodgers, C.J. Stroud and Dak Prescott, who are all left on their schedule,” DiRocco wrote.
Along with the 98.8% playoff odds, ESPN gave the Jaguars a 93.4% chance to win the AFC South and pointed out that they are beating teams at a historic pace. Jacksonville already has four wins by 23 or more points (34-10 over Cleveland, 35-6 over New England, 42-7 over Indianapolis, and 33-10 at Baltimore), setting a new single-season franchise record at the halfway mark.
The confidence in their offense is driving their entire momentum. Brian Thomas Jr. might be having a quiet year, but Jakobi Meyers, Parker Washington, and Josh Cameron, alongside the two-way star WR Travis Hunter, are all stepping up as Trevor Lawrence’s top targets.
Trevor Lawrence, Offense on a Roll
As for Lawrence himself, ESPN’s metrics show just how far he’s come this season.
“Trevor Lawrence has the NFL’s lowest off-target percentage at 9.2%, which is by far the best percentage of his career (15% in 2025 was his previous best). Coach Liam Coen has praised Lawrence’s footwork, which was the first thing he worked to fix in the spring before his first season as coach in Jacksonville in 2025, as a reason for his improved accuracy.”
And these numbers were from before the trade deadline. Before the Jaguars went all in for defensive pieces to fix up that front. Jordan Davis, Davon Godchaux, and Jessie Bates.
While the defense works through its sack issues, the offense has kept things rolling. The Jaguars take on the Tennessee Titans in Week 10, and that will be the true litmus test on just how well the trades are paying off for the Jaguars.
ESPN Ranks Jaguars Above Seahawks, Chiefs in Probability to Make Playoffs