The expectations around Texas quarterback Arch Manning have been high throughout his college career. However, his NFL draft outlook is now beginning to look much less certain.
ESPN’s Jordan Reid examined Manning’s standing after Texas’ 27-24 loss to Oklahoma and made clear that while the quarterback still flashes the talent of an early first-round pick, the consistency isn’t there.
Reid currently has Manning graded as a Day 2 prospect rather than an early Round 1 player. That would put him in second- or third-round territory.
Arch Manning Still Flashes Top-10 Talent
Manning entered the season carrying the type of expectations that come with both his name and his flashes of high-end arm talent.
Those flashes haven’t disappeared.
“Manning has two or three plays per game that explain why some scouts still view him as a potential top-10 pick,” Reid wrote. “But those plays are surrounded by too much inconsistency, which is why I have him graded as a Day 2 prospect right now on my QB Hot Board.”
The Red River Rivalry gave Reid a perfect example of the problem.
Manning finished 19-of-31 for 260 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions against Oklahoma. His first touchdown was one of his best throws of the season, a 41-yard strike to Cam Coleman after Manning escaped pressure and kept his eyes downfield.
But the fourth quarter went the other direction.
Manning threw an interception that Peyton Bowen returned 42 yards for a touchdown, giving Oklahoma a 24-17 lead. After Texas responded with a tying touchdown drive, Manning threw another interception with 20 seconds remaining.
Oklahoma turned that final mistake into Tate Sandell’s game-winning 47-yard field goal as time expired.
“Manning has a curious way of making routine throws look difficult … and difficult throws look routine,” Reid wrote.
That contrast is why his draft stock remains difficult to pin down.
Arch Manning’s Inconsistency Remains the Concern
Reid pointed to Manning’s mechanics as the biggest reason for the uneven accuracy.
“At 6-foot-4 and 222 pounds, Manning has scattershot accuracy throughout games, which is a result of his footwork and mechanics being out of whack,” Reid wrote. “The inconsistencies, turnovers and lack of accuracy is reminiscent of what he showed during the first half of the 2025 season.”
The Oklahoma loss was Texas’ first of the season, dropping the Longhorns to 4-1. Manning has now thrown at least one interception in four of his five games this season.
His production has been uneven even in wins.
Manning completed 74.1% of his passes for 305 yards and four touchdowns against Texas State, but he completed only half of his 32 attempts against UTSA. Against Ohio State, he threw for 195 yards with one touchdown and one interception before helping Texas escape with a 24-23 win.
There are still plenty of games left for Manning to change the conversation.
Reid isn’t dismissing the physical talent. The reason some scouts can still see a top-10 pick is because Manning continues to produce throws that few quarterbacks in the class can make.
The problem is what happens between them.
For now, Reid sees enough inconsistency to move Manning out of the first-round range entirely and into Day 2 territory.
That is a long way from the No. 1 overall conversation that has surrounded Manning for much of his career.
Texas’ Arch Manning Takes Major NFL Draft Hit After Oklahoma Collapse