The Kentucky Derby weather forecast for today, May 2, predicts good news for horse racing fans. While there are morning showers in the forecast at Churchill Downs, the rain is expected to clear up by 11 a.m. Eastern.
“A morning shower in places, otherwise, cool with periods of sun,” the AccuWeather forecast for the Kentucky Derby details. “A shower can’t be ruled out, and a jacket will come in handy for the horse race.”
For now, it does not appear that weather will play a factor in the Kentucky Derby. The high is forecasted at 58 degrees with the low at 39 degrees at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The Kentucky Derby race starts at 6:57 p.m. Eastern.
Fans will likely be pleased to learn that there is only a 20% chance of rain during the window when the race will be run, per AccuWeather. The temperature is projected to be 56 degrees during the race.
Here’s what you need to know about the Kentucky Derby weather forecast for today’s race.
Best ‘Mudders’ in the Kentucky Derby: What Horses Run Well in Races in the Rain?
There have been no shortage of Kentucky Derby races filled with rain, leading to the horses running in the mud. While rain is not in the forecast for today’s Kentucky Derby, things can change at Churchill Downs.
Looking for the best “mudders” who are running in the Kentucky Derby? Keep an eye on Danon Bourbon, Wonder Dean and Further Ado, per For the Win’s Barry Werner.
“Take a long look at Danon Bourbon,” Werner wrote in a May 1, story titled, “3 best Kentucky Derby ‘mudders’ if it rains at Churchill Downs in 2026.” “The horse representing Japan is 2-for-2 on wet tracks. Would an off-track in Japan translate to the Bluegrass State? One won’t know unless the weather gods turn on the Run for the Roses. However, his past performances set this one up for a big go.
“Speaking of Japan, Wonder Dean also has made two starts on a wet track and has a first and a second. …Among the horses from the United States, Florida Derby winner Commandment and Blue Grass champ Further Ado have strong wet track pedigrees.”
Kentucky Derby Horses & Post Positions for 2026
Here’s a look at the updated post positions, list of horses and latest betting odds, per Kentucky Derby.
| POST POSITION | HORSE | ODDS |
| 1 | Renegade | 5/1 |
| 2 | Albus | 50/1 |
| 3 | Intrepido | 55/1 |
| 4 | Litmus Test | 34/1 |
| 6 | Commandment | 7/1 |
| 7 | Danon Bourbon | 14/1 |
| 8 | So Happy | 6/1 |
| 9 | The Puma | 8/1 |
| 10 | Wonder Dean (JPN) | 20/1 |
| 11 | Incredibolt | 27/1 |
| 12 | Chef Wallabee | 9/1 |
| 14 | Potente | 23/1 |
| 15 | Emerging Market | 11/1 |
| 16 | Pavlovian | 52/1 |
| 17 | Six Speed | 40/1 |
| 18 | Further Ado | 7/1 |
| 19 | Golden Tempo | 36/1 |
| 21 | Great White | 29/1 |
| 22 | Ocelli | 50/1 |
| 23 | Robusta | 50/1 |
Kentucky Derby Weather Forecast: Rain Not Expected During the Horse Race at Churchill Downs
Fox Weather projects a “low risk” of rain during the Kentucky Derby. While fans attending the race will need a jacket, it does not appear that rain will be a factor at Churchill Downs.
“KENTUCKY DERBY FORECAST 🏇: Racers, bettors and millions watching the Kentucky Derby worldwide won’t have weather to blame at Churchill Downs this year,” Fox Weather detailed in a May 1, message on X.
“The FOX Forecast Center calls for a LOW Risk of Weather Impact (ROWI), with partly cloudy skies and temperatures near 57° at race time tomorrow.”
Kentucky Derby Weather Forecast Today: Will It Rain During Race?