The Cincinnati Bengals are preparing for one of their biggest games of the season, and a new computer model suggests Sunday’s showdown with the Pittsburgh Steelers could go a long way toward determining the AFC North champion.
Both teams enter the matchup at 6-2, with Pittsburgh currently holding the divisional tiebreaker after defeating Cincinnati earlier this season. However, the Bengals have an opportunity to reverse their fortunes and take sole possession of first place on Sunday Night Football.
According to NFL analyst Ben Baldwin’s November 11 playoff projections, Cincinnati’s chances of winning the AFC North could swing by an astonishing 50 percentage points depending on the outcome.
The model gives the Bengals an 83% chance of winning the division with a victory, compared to just 33% if they lose.
With Joe Burrow playing some of the best football of his career, Cincinnati has a chance to seize control of the division in front of a national audience.
Bengals-Steelers Matchup Could Dramatically Shift AFC North Race
Baldwin, who shares NFL analytics on X, published a chart examining how Week 10 results could affect teams’ playoff positioning.
We have an unofficial playoff game! Texans-Browns
We have an absolutely massive divisional game!! Bengals-Steelers. Wow is this game important
Cincinnati’s 50-percentage-point division swing was the largest among the AFC teams featured in the graphic, narrowly exceeding Pittsburgh’s own 48-point swing.
The Steelers would have a 60% chance of winning the division with a victory, according to Baldwin’s projections. A loss, however, would reduce those chances to 12%.
Interestingly, the Bengals’ overall playoff outlook remains considerably more secure than their division standing.
Even with a loss, Baldwin’s model gives Cincinnati an 84% chance of reaching the postseason. A victory would push that figure to 97%.
Sunday’s game may not determine whether Cincinnati makes the playoffs, but it could go a long way toward determining whether they enter the postseason as division champions or a wild-card team.
Of course, the model’s percentages are projections rather than guarantees. Both teams will still have several games remaining, and the AFC North race could change substantially before the regular season concludes.
Still, this matchup looked important regardless, with both teams sitting at 6-2 and first place in the division on the line. The computer numbers just back up the eye test.
Joe Burrow & Bengals Have Revenge on Their Minds
Cincinnati has additional motivation heading into Sunday’s rematch.
The Steelers handed the Bengals their first loss of the season on September 27, escaping with a 30-27 victory at Acrisure Stadium.
Burrow completed 28 of 37 passes for 282 yards and three touchdowns in that contest, but Pittsburgh quarterback Aaron Rodgers countered with 292 passing yards and three touchdowns of his own.
The Bengals briefly held a fourth-quarter lead before Chris Boswell connected on two late field goals. Cincinnati’s final possession ended when Burrow lost a fumble following a sack by Derrick Harmon.
A second loss to Pittsburgh would give the Steelers a sweep of the season series and a potentially decisive head-to-head tiebreaker advantage.
The Bengals have responded impressively since their early-season struggles, entering Sunday’s game on a four-game winning streak.
Pittsburgh is riding a four-game winning streak of its own, setting up a meeting between two teams playing some of their best football.
With both teams tied at 6-2 and the AFC North potentially hanging in the balance, Sunday’s primetime matchup will be must-see TV.
Bengals-Steelers Showdown Could Decide AFC North, Model Predicts