The nightcap of NFL action for Week 5 features an intriguing battle between the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs and the up-and-coming Houston Texans, led by Rookie of the Year candidate QB Deshaun Watson. The Chiefs have looked like the real deal this season, defeating the New England Patriots, Philadelphia Eagles, and Washington Redskins, for starters. While the Texans are coming off a monster 57-14 win over the division rival Tennessee Titans.
The Chiefs are 4-0 this season and 4-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Texans are 2-2 straight up and 3-1 ATS.
OddsShark currently has the betting line right around a pick currently, but it’s moved massively, as it started with the Chiefs favored by -3.5. The over/under is right around 45, and after starting at 47 this means that quite a bit of money has gone on the under, moving the total down. The public is 54 percent on the Chiefs to win, while also being on the over at 63 percent.
Interestingly, the OddsShark computer, which predicts the outcome of games, is predicting the Texans to hand the Chiefs their first loss of the season, by a score of 24.4 to 20. This projection leaves the over/under almost spot on with its current projection but would be under.
Both teams are playing good football currently, and the Texans are seemingly getting a lot of love after their big Week 4 win. Plus, playing at home on prime time is always a big deal, so Watson, J.J. Watt and the rest of the Texans should make this a fun battle to watch.
Prediction and Pick
It’s hard not to like a team as talented as the Chiefs at a pick. While Watson and the Texans look like a team with tremendous upside, this Chiefs defense will probably be the best that he’s faced in not just his NFL career, but his entire life. The Kansas City defense is allowing just 19.3 points per game this season and has tallied 11 sacks, six forced fumbles and four interceptions on the year.
I think this game will wind up being higher scoring than most think, but that the Chiefs will get the job done on the road, although it won’t be easy. I’m expecting this to be a great game across the board, with Kansas City remaining undefeated but the Texans still proving that they’re trending toward being a legitimate contender.
Heavy’s Pick: Chiefs 28 Texans 24. Chiefs cover the spread. Over the projected total.
Editor’s note: The Checkdown brings you live, interactive fantasy football advice every Sunday morning from 10 a.m.. to 1 p.m. Eastern on Heavy’s YouTube channel. Rick Rosen takes your questions and helps you fill out your lineup. Watch a replay of the Week 4 episode in the player below, and check out the live show right here on Sunday morning.